COLUMBUS, OH--(Marketwire - November 2, 2010) - The October same store sales forecast appears to bring some retailers reason for cautious optimism this holiday season, according to ForecastIQ® (a service from Prosper Technologies, LLC). 14 of the 27 retailers tracked are forecasted likely or almost certain growth in November and December. However, the outlook is tempered by 9 retailers that are likely/almost certain to experience decline and 4 that are forecasted to remain flat against a lackluster holiday season last year.
| Total Number for Retailers Tracked | ||||||
| OCT-2010 | OCT-2009 | OCT-2008 | ||||
| Almost certain increase* | 3 | 3 | 3 | |||
| Likely increase | 11 | 3 | 5 | |||
| Flat | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Likely decline | 6 | 8 | 8 | |||
| Almost certain decline | 3 | 11 | 10 |
*An "almost certain increase" indicator for October means that in November and December, retailers are almost certain to experience same store sales growth from the same period a year ago.
Complimentary 30-day trial: www.forecastiq.com
Types of retailers forecasted to experience growth in same store sales over the next 60 days are also a mixed bag. High-end retailer Saks is almost certain to see growth and Neiman Marcus and Nordstrom are likely, indicating the "luxury" consumer may be back, at least for the holidays. Specialty retailer Victoria's Secret is almost certain to see an increase; Buckle and Children's Place are likely.
Warehouse clubs Costco and BJ's and value-driven retailers Ross and TJX are either almost certain or likely to see an increase, indicating that consumers are still considering the "value equation" in their purchases.
On the other hand, retailers forecasted to remain flat or experience decline also include specialty, department and discount stores, signaling a not-so-merry holiday for some.
A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ® and expectations for same store sales year-over-year growth/decline through December follows:
| Almost certain to see increase: | Almost certain to see decline: | |||||
| Costco | Hot Topic | |||||
| Saks | Wet Seal | |||||
| Victoria's Secret | ||||||
| Likely to see increase: | Likely to see decline: | |||||
| Abercrombie & Fitch | Aeropostale | Dillard's | Cato's | |||
| Buckle | BJ's | Fred's | ||||
| Neiman Marcus | Children's Place | Gap | ||||
| Nordstrom | JC Penney | Old Navy | ||||
| Ross | TJX | Stage | ||||
| Flat: | ||||||
| American Eagle | ||||||
| Banana Republic | ||||||
| Bonton | ||||||
For a complete list including all retailers and free trial: www.forecastiq.com
About ForecastIQ®
ForecastIQ® was developed by Prosper Technologies and Greg Allenby by analyzing over 8 years of data from the BIGresearch® monthly Consumer Intentions & Actions® (CIA™) surveys based upon future spending plans of consumers and the same store sales of over 27 publicly held retailers, by applying Bayesian quantile analysis to the data. The results are accurate and provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in advance. Same store sales forecasts are provided by percent growth over the next 45 and 75-day period. Short-term forecasts are also available via enhanced consensus estimates.
About Prosper Technologies
Prosper Technologies develops software applications that provide consumer-centric analytics to marketers/retailers for better forecasting consumer demand, allocating marketing dollars, tracking consumer behaviors and understanding cross-shopping patterns.
Contact Information:
Contact:
Phil Rist
614-846-0146