BOSTON, April 18, 2012 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- With solar module prices dropping by over 50 percent in the past year, thin film PV manufacturers are entrenched in a fight for survival. In 2011, the technology's global market share eroded to 11 percent from its peak of nearly 20 percent in 2009—a year when thin film's cost advantages in relation to rival crystalline silicon (c-Si) technologies made it the darling of the solar industry. Today however, thin film is trapped in a fiercely competitive photovoltaics (PV) supply market, as oversupply has brought sub-$1 per watt c-Si to global markets.
"With tier one c-Si PV prices dropping to averages of $0.87 per watt in 2012, thin film manufacturers must now be more frugal, technologically aggressive and creative in implementing downstream strategies that will help them survive current competition and develop secure markets down the road," said MJ Shiao, Senior Analyst at GTM Research and the report's lead author.
At 321 pages, Thin Film 2012–2016: Technologies, Markets and Strategies for Survival is the fourth edition of GTM Research's annual update on the thin-film PV space. With detailed, accurate data, a granular examination of manufacturing costs, technology analysis, recommendations for supplier strategies, and competitive intelligence on the top 80 firms in the space, it is the most comprehensive, data-driven and objective assessment of the space available to date.
While GTM Research forecasts global thin film production and total market value dips below $3 billion in 2012, the report projects an up-tick in thin film demand in 2015/16, when the total market recovers to $7.6 billion. The industry's rebound will be predicated on the continued, though muted, success of First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) and the execution of efficiency, yield and scale roadmaps from other thin film manufactures.
In particular, the report forecasts strong growth in the copper-indium-gallium-diselenide (CIGS) technology segment, forecasting production at 4 GW in 2016. In 2011, Solar Frontier established itself as a dominant supplier with roughly 400 MW of CIGS PV shipments, but companies like MiaSolé and TSMC (NYSE:TSM) could emerge in the next few years as top thin film suppliers with cost of manufacturing approaching $0.50 per watt. Venture investments in CIGS surpassed $305 million in the past two quarters, albeit at depressed valuations. Coupled with increased interest from global industrial conglomerates on the sidelines, GTM Research predicts major acquisitions in the near future.
"Thin film PV has historically been led by a few manufacturers and a long tail of aspirants because thin film manufacturing IP is heavily guarded," said Shiao. "Only those that have the delicate recipe that balances high yields and efficiencies, cash preservation in a bitter demand market, a pinch of downstream integration, and a corporate balance sheet to soften bankability doubts will taste the sweetness of market success."
ABOUT THE REPORT
At 321 pages, Thin Film 2012–2016: Technologies, Markets and Strategies for Survival is the fourth edition of GTM Research's annual update on the thin-film PV space. With detailed, accurate data, a granular examination of manufacturing costs, technology analysis, recommendations for supplier strategies, and competitive intelligence on the top 80 firms in the space, it is the most comprehensive, data-driven and objective assessment of the space available to date.
For more information the report's content and to purchase a copy, visit http://www.greentechmedia.com/research/report/thin-film-2012-2016.
Report Inquiries for Competitive Decision-making:
- For firms looking to invest in thin film, what technologies, firms, and business models are positioned for success in the near and long-term?
- How is consolidation in the thin film space likely to proceed in terms of possible investments, insolvencies, mergers, and acquisitions?
- How accurate are current thin film cost and technology roadmaps? What will future manufacturing costs for key thin film technologies be through 2016?
- What combinations of costs and efficiencies are required to compete with Chinese crystalline silicon firms over the next five years?
- How do different technologies (CdTe, CIGS, tandem Si, single-junction Si) and processes (co-evaporation, sputtering) perform with respect to efficiency, yield, and equipment costs?
- Will business-model diversity, such as project development or project financing, be key to sustained success?
- How are some thin film suppliers finding niche opportunity in emerging markets and innovative application segments?
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What is the long-term module profit margin profile of different thin film module technologies?
Visit www.gtmresearch.com to learn more today.
ABOUT GTM RESEARCH
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CONTACT:Nicholas Rinaldi GTM Research Marketing Manager rinaldi@gtmresearch.com
