SANTA MONICA, Calif., Nov. 24, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- TrueCar, Inc. and its ALG, Inc. subsidiary project total new vehicle sales will reach 1,243,630 units in November 2020, down 0.5% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 16.4 million units. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar and ALG expect U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,099,808 units, an increase of 2.9% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
Average transaction prices (ATP) are projected to be up 4.7% or $1,707 from a year ago and up 2.3% or $838 from October 2020. TrueCar projects that U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach more than $47 billion for November 2020, down 7.9% (based on a non-adjusted daily selling rate) from a year ago and down 6.6% from last month.
“As Thanksgiving weekend and Black Friday inch closer, we anticipate the new vehicle sales momentum from the past three months to continue with increases year-over-year for new retail sales,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst for ALG. “We expect many consumers who have not been financially affected by the pandemic to make their vehicle purchases this month, especially with fewer people traveling this holiday season and with inventory rebounding.”
“Last year, the average discount on Black Friday was 10.2% off the manufacturer’s suggested retail price and we expect similar deals for this year,” added Lyman.
Additional Insights: (Forecast by ALG and TrueCar)
- Total retail sales for November 2020 are expected to be up 2.9% from a year ago and up 8.4% from October 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Fleet sales for November 2020 are expected to be down 21% from a year ago and up 38% from October 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Average transaction prices (ATP) are projected to be up 4.7% or $1,707 from a year ago and up 2.3% or $838 from October 2020.
- Total SAAR is expected to decrease 4% from a year ago from 17 million units to 16.3million units.
- Used vehicle sales for November 2020 are expected to reach 3 million, down 1% from a year ago and down 11% from October 2020.
- The average interest rates on new vehicles are 5.7% and the average interest rates on used vehicles are 8.1%.
“New vehicle average transaction prices are making a significant jump for November, with prices increasing more than $1,700 from a year ago,” said Nick Woolard, Director of OEM Analytics at TrueCar. “While it’s somewhat surprising to see this trend during a period of economic uncertainty, this is being driven by consumers who continue to gravitate toward utilities and pickup trucks at higher price points.”
“Incentives are up are slightly for November year-over-year and shoppers can expect to find good Black Friday deals like any other year. While inventory has been rebounding, it varies by brand and model so if there is a vehicle that a consumer has their heart set on, we recommend moving quickly to make the purchase and secure the vehicle,” added Woolard.
November 2020 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume. For additional data visit the ALG Newsroom and TrueCar Newsroom.
Total Unit Sales
| Manufacturer | Nov 2020 Forecast | Nov 2019 Actual | Oct 2020 Actual | YoY % Change | YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) | MoM % Change | MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
| BMW | 29,106 | 34,398 | 31,040 | -15.4% | -4.3% | -6.2% | 14.2% |
| Daimler | 26,033 | 37,263 | 29,082 | -30.1% | -21.0% | -10.5% | 9.0% |
| FCA | 144,538 | 174,324 | 159,147 | -17.1% | -6.3% | -9.2% | 10.6% |
| Ford | 152,395 | 188,718 | 181,820 | -19.2% | -8.7% | -16.2% | 2.0% |
| GM | 231,898 | 245,108 | 259,493 | -5.4% | 7.0% | -10.6% | 8.8% |
| Honda | 111,244 | 133,952 | 126,987 | -17.0% | -6.1% | -12.4% | 6.6% |
| Hyundai | 58,334 | 62,768 | 58,449 | -7.1% | 5.1% | -0.2% | 21.5% |
| Kia | 49,008 | 50,504 | 56,094 | -3.0% | 9.7% | -12.6% | 6.4% |
| Nissan | 75,306 | 92,947 | 71,679 | -19.0% | -8.4% | 5.1% | 27.9% |
| Subaru | 51,480 | 56,893 | 61,411 | -9.5% | 2.3% | -16.2% | 2.1% |
| Tesla | 20,571 | 16,450 | 19,600 | 25.1% | 41.4% | 5.0% | 27.8% |
| Toyota | 197,954 | 207,857 | 203,936 | -4.8% | 7.7% | -2.9% | 18.2% |
| Volkswagen Group | 46,191 | 56,575 | 51,607 | -18.4% | -7.7% | -10.5% | 9.0% |
| Industry | 1,243,630 | 1,413,514 | 1,361,858 | -12.0% | -0.5% | -8.7% | 11.2% |
Retail Unit Sales
| Manufacturer | Nov 2020 Forecast | Nov 2019 Actual | Oct 2020 Actual | YoY % Change | YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) | MoM % Change | MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
| BMW | 28,349 | 31,828 | 30,062 | -10.9% | 0.7% | -5.7% | 14.8% |
| Daimler | 25,489 | 34,546 | 28,268 | -26.2% | -16.6% | -9.8% | 9.8% |
| FCA | 126,519 | 136,339 | 139,670 | -7.2% | 4.9% | -9.4% | 10.3% |
| Ford | 120,561 | 141,865 | 142,698 | -15.0% | -3.9% | -15.5% | 2.9% |
| GM | 187,379 | 188,634 | 225,535 | -0.7% | 12.3% | -16.9% | 1.1% |
| Honda | 110,689 | 132,842 | 126,401 | -16.7% | -5.8% | -12.4% | 6.6% |
| Hyundai | 52,191 | 52,534 | 53,257 | -0.7% | 12.3% | -2.0% | 19.3% |
| Kia | 46,776 | 46,370 | 54,492 | 0.9% | 14.0% | -14.2% | 4.5% |
| Nissan | 62,094 | 73,383 | 66,404 | -15.4% | -4.3% | -6.5% | 13.8% |
| Subaru | 49,602 | 54,658 | 60,213 | -9.2% | 2.6% | -17.6% | 0.3% |
| Tesla | 20,559 | 16,450 | 19,588 | 25.0% | 41.3% | 5.0% | 27.8% |
| Toyota | 178,433 | 195,312 | 188,689 | -8.6% | 3.3% | -5.4% | 15.1% |
| Volkswagen Group | 45,452 | 54,148 | 51,401 | -16.1% | -5.1% | -11.6% | 7.6% |
| Industry | 1,099,808 | 1,207,742 | 1,235,269 | -8.9% | 2.9% | -11.0% | 8.4% |
Fleet Unit Sales
| Manufacturer | Nov 2020 Forecast | Nov 2019 Actual | Oct 2020 Actual | YoY % Change | YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) | MoM % Change | MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
| BMW | 757 | 2,570 | 978 | -70.5% | -66.7% | -22.6% | -5.8% |
| Daimler | 543 | 2,717 | 814 | -80.0% | -77.4% | -33.2% | -18.7% |
| FCA | 18,019 | 37,985 | 19,477 | -52.6% | -46.4% | -7.5% | 12.6% |
| Ford | 31,834 | 46,853 | 39,122 | -32.1% | -23.2% | -18.6% | -0.9% |
| GM | 44,519 | 56,474 | 33,958 | -21.2% | -10.9% | 31.1% | 59.6% |
| Honda | 555 | 1,110 | 586 | -50.0% | -43.5% | -5.2% | 15.4% |
| Hyundai | 6,143 | 10,234 | 5,192 | -40.0% | -32.2% | 18.3% | 44.0% |
| Kia | 2,232 | 4,134 | 1,602 | -46.0% | -39.0% | 39.4% | 69.7% |
| Nissan | 13,212 | 19,564 | 5,275 | -32.5% | -23.7% | 150.5% | 204.9% |
| Subaru | 1,877 | 2,235 | 1,198 | -16.0% | -5.0% | 56.7% | 90.7% |
| Tesla | 12 | - | 12 | - | - | -2.7% | 18.5% |
| Toyota | 19,521 | 12,545 | 15,247 | 55.6% | 75.9% | 28.0% | 55.9% |
| Volkswagen Group | 739 | 2,427 | 206 | -69.5% | -65.6% | 259.0% | 337.0% |
| Industry | 143,823 | 205,772 | 126,589 | -30.1% | -21.0% | 13.6% | 38.3% |
Fleet Penetration
| Manufacturer | Nov 2020 Forecast | Nov 2019 Actual | Oct 2020 Actual | YoY % Change | MoM % Change |
| BMW | 2.6% | 7.5% | 3.2% | -65.2% | -17.5% |
| Daimler | 2.1% | 7.3% | 2.8% | -71.4% | -25.4% |
| FCA | 12.5% | 21.8% | 12.2% | -42.8% | 1.9% |
| Ford | 20.9% | 24.8% | 21.5% | -15.9% | -2.9% |
| GM | 19.2% | 23.0% | 13.1% | -16.7% | 46.7% |
| Honda | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | -39.8% | 8.2% |
| Hyundai | 10.5% | 16.3% | 8.9% | -35.4% | 18.5% |
| Kia | 4.6% | 8.2% | 2.9% | -44.4% | 59.5% |
| Nissan | 17.5% | 21.0% | 7.4% | -16.7% | 138.4% |
| Subaru | 3.6% | 3.9% | 2.0% | -7.2% | 86.9% |
| Tesla | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | -7.3% | |
| Toyota | 9.9% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 63.4% | 31.9% |
| Volkswagen Group | 1.6% | 4.3% | 0.4% | -62.7% | 301.0% |
| Industry | 11.6% | 14.6% | 9.3% | -20.6% | 24.4% |
Total Market Share
| Manufacturer | Nov 2020 Forecast | Nov 2019 Actual | Oct 2020 Actual |
| BMW | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.3% |
| Daimler | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.1% |
| FCA | 11.6% | 12.3% | 11.7% |
| Ford | 12.3% | 13.4% | 13.4% |
| GM | 18.6% | 17.3% | 19.1% |
| Honda | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.3% |
| Hyundai | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% |
| Kia | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.1% |
| Nissan | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.3% |
| Subaru | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Tesla | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.4% |
| Toyota | 15.9% | 14.7% | 15.0% |
| Volkswagen Group | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.8% |
Retail Market Share
| Manufacturer | Nov 2020 Forecast | Nov 2019 Actual | Oct 2020 Actual |
| BMW | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% |
| Daimler | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.3% |
| FCA | 11.5% | 11.3% | 11.3% |
| Ford | 11.0% | 11.7% | 11.6% |
| GM | 17.0% | 15.6% | 18.3% |
| Honda | 10.1% | 11.0% | 10.2% |
| Hyundai | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| Kia | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.4% |
| Nissan | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.4% |
| Subaru | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% |
| Tesla | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| Toyota | 16.2% | 16.2% | 15.3% |
| Volkswagen Group | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% |
Average Transaction Price (ATP)
| Manufacturer | Nov 2020 Forecast | Nov 2019 Actual | Oct 2020 Actual | YOY | MOM | |||
| BMW | $58,351 | $57,900 | $60,190 | 0.8% | -3.1% | |||
| Daimler | $58,126 | $59,162 | $57,710 | -1.8% | 0.7% | |||
| FCA | $44,108 | $41,146 | $42,756 | 7.2% | 3.2% | |||
| Ford | $44,237 | $41,458 | $43,594 | 6.7% | 1.5% | |||
| GM | $43,790 | $41,335 | $42,665 | 5.9% | 2.6% | |||
| Honda | $30,746 | $29,423 | $30,570 | 4.5% | 0.6% | |||
| Hyundai | $29,279 | $26,338 | $28,659 | 11.2% | 2.2% | |||
| Kia | $28,395 | $26,164 | $27,826 | 8.5% | 2.0% | |||
| Nissan | $29,529 | $29,128 | $29,066 | 1.4% | 1.6% | |||
| Subaru | $30,740 | $30,084 | $30,337 | 2.2% | 1.3% | |||
| Toyota | $35,463 | $33,605 | $34,978 | 5.5% | 1.4% | |||
| Volkswagen Group | $42,544 | $40,953 | $41,480 | 3.9% | 2.6% | |||
| Industry | $38,024 | $36,317 | $37,186 | 4.7% | 2.3% | |||
Incentive Spending
| Manufacturer | Nov 2020 Forecast | Nov 2019 Actual | Oct 2020 Actual | YOY | MOM | ||
| BMW | $5,114 | $6,074 | $5,866 | -15.8% | -12.8% | ||
| Daimler | $5,161 | $5,369 | $5,675 | -3.9% | -9.1% | ||
| FCA | $4,255 | $4,941 | $5,045 | -13.9% | -15.6% | ||
| Ford | $4,737 | $4,615 | $4,313 | 2.6% | 9.8% | ||
| GM | $4,803 | $5,108 | $5,653 | -6.0% | -15.0% | ||
| Honda | $2,397 | $2,046 | $2,654 | 17.2% | -9.7% | ||
| Hyundai | $2,535 | $2,757 | $2,479 | -8.1% | 2.2% | ||
| Kia | $2,774 | $3,541 | $3,779 | -21.7% | -26.6% | ||
| Nissan | $4,876 | $3,970 | $4,831 | 22.8% | 0.9% | ||
| Subaru | $1,762 | $1,454 | $1,747 | 21.2% | 0.9% | ||
| Toyota | $2,733 | $2,519 | $2,676 | 8.5% | 2.1% | ||
| Volkswagen Group | $4,312 | $3,479 | $4,401 | 23.9% | -2.0% | ||
| Industry | $3,819 | $3,797 | $4,103 | 0.6% | -6.9% | ||
Incentives as a Percentage of Average Transaction Price (ATP)
| Manufacturer | Nov 2020 Forecast | Nov 2019 Actual | Oct 2020 Actual | YOY | MOM |
| BMW | 8.8% | 10.5% | 9.7% | -16.5% | -10.1% |
| Daimler | 8.9% | 9.1% | 9.8% | -2.2% | -9.7% |
| FCA | 9.6% | 12.0% | 11.8% | -19.7% | -18.2% |
| Ford | 10.7% | 11.1% | 9.9% | -3.8% | 8.2% |
| GM | 11.0% | 12.4% | 13.2% | -11.2% | -17.2% |
| Honda | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 12.1% | -10.2% |
| Hyundai | 8.7% | 10.5% | 8.7% | -17.3% | 0.1% |
| Kia | 9.8% | 13.5% | 13.6% | -27.8% | -28.1% |
| Nissan | 16.5% | 13.6% | 16.6% | 21.2% | -0.6% |
| Subaru | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 18.6% | -0.5% |
| Toyota | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Volkswagen Group | 10.1% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 19.3% | -4.5% |
| Industry | 10.0% | 10.5% | 11.0% | -3.9% | -9.0% |
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.’s operations.)
About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 55 years and in Canada since 1981.
About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new and used cars -- all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam’s Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in Austin, Texas and Boston, Massachusetts.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email: pr@truecar.com
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