The average annual wheat price in the U.S. is forecast to drop by 2% y-o-y to $250 per tonne in 2022, falling on reduced domestic consumption coupled with stable supply worldwide. The market balance will be buoyed by production gains in Argentina and the EU to offset decreasing output in Brazil and Paraguay.
LOS ANGELES, Jan. 17, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The average annual price for Hard Red Winter wheat from the U.S. will drop by 2% y-o-y to $250 per tonne in 2022, according to a recent report by a market research firm IndexBox. Reducing domestic consumption is to become the key reason for that decrease, as feed use of wheat is expected to fall due to relatively high prices compared to other grains. The EU and Ukraine are to follow a similar trend.
The global wheat supply will remain stable in 2022, as boosting production in Argentina and the EU will compensate for the expected decreases in Brazil and Paraguay and lower Russia’s beginning stocks. Argentina’s output will surpass a record 20.5M tonnes this year.
In 2022, projected global trade will decline to 204M due to reduced supplies from the U.S. and Russia. American wheat remains uncompetitive in foreign markets, while the Russian government imposes quotas on export volumes to ensure sufficient domestic supplies and stabilize domestic food prices. Rising supplies from the EU could only partially offset that drop in the world’s exports.
Global Wheat Exports
Global wheat exports were estimated at 199M tonnes in 2020, increasing by 13% compared with the previous year's figure. In value terms, supplies rose markedly to $45.3B.
The shipments of the five major wheat exporters, namely Russia, the U.S., Canada, France and Ukraine, represented more than half of global supplies. Australia (10M tonnes) ranks next in terms of the total exports with a 5.2% share, followed by Argentina (5.1%) and Germany (4.7%). The following exporters - Kazakhstan (5.4M tonnes), Poland (4.7M tonnes), Romania (4.3M tonnes), Lithuania (4M tonnes) and Bulgaria (3.2M tonnes) - together made up 11% of the total volume.
In value terms, Russia ($7.9B), the U.S. ($6.3B) and Canada ($6.3B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2020, with a combined 45% share of global supplies. These countries were followed by France, Ukraine, Australia, Germany, Argentina, Kazakhstan, Poland, Romania, Lithuania and Bulgaria, which accounted for a further 44%.
World’s Largest Wheat Importers
The purchases of the twelve major wheat importers, namely Indonesia, Turkey, Egypt, Nigeria, China, Italy, Algeria, the Philippines, Brazil, Bangladesh, Morocco and Japan, represented more than a third of the total volume. The Netherlands (4.3M tonnes) occupied a minor share of global imports.
In value terms, the largest wheat importing markets worldwide were Egypt ($2.7B), Indonesia ($2.6B) and Turkey ($2.3B), together accounting for 16% of international purchases. These countries were followed by China, Nigeria, Italy, Algeria, the Philippines, Japan, Brazil, Morocco, Bangladesh and the Netherlands, which accounted for a further 34%.
About IndexBox
IndexBox is a market research firm developing an AI-driven market intelligence platform that helps business analysts find actionable insights and make data-driven decisions. The platform provides data on consumption, production, trade, and prices for more than 10K+ different products across 200 countries.
For more information, please visit
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Companies Mentioned in the Report
Archer Daniels Midland Company, Bunge Ltd., Cargill Inc., Louis Dreyfus Company B.V., General Mills, Glencore International AG, United Grain Company Yug LLC, RIF LLC, Wudeli Flour Mill Group, Ardent Mills, Allied Pinnacle Pty Limited, Manildra Milling Pvt Ltd, Acarsan Flour, KORFEZ Flour Mills, George Weston Foods Limited, Hodgson Mill, Mtk Ltd, Vneshtorg-Rus LLC, Vostok-Snab, Diet Prom LLC, TPK Varna, Adascan Grain Corporation, ADM Agri-Industries Company, Agricom International Inc., Agrocorp Processing Ltd., Agri-Tel Grain Limited, Besco Grain Ltd.
Sources
World - Wheat - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
World - Cereals - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
World - Grain - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
U.S. - Wheat - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
Russia - Wheat - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
