Latest IBD/TIPP Survey Shows Majority of Americans Support Immigration Ban and Want ObamaCare Left Intact or Expanded

Economic Optimism Index Registers New 10-year High

LOS ANGELES, Feb. 07, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Investor’s Business Daily and Technometrica, one of America’s most accurate pollsters, today announced the results of their monthly survey, weighing consumer sentiment on presidential leadership and key political issues, as well as the overall economic outlook. IBD/TIPP conducted the national telephone poll of nearly 900 adults from January 27 to February 2.

Key survey findings include:

  • Overall satisfaction with the direction of the country is the highest it’s been since 2005. Markers indicate high expectations for positive change, driven largely by independents, who this month registered their highest positive reading since 2007 at 47.6%.
  • Looking across gender, the survey identified a split between single and married women, with married women showing much stronger support for Trump. The reading for married women was 57.7% – a record high – compared with single women who showed a more than 10-point gap from their married counterparts. Single women trended slightly negative at 46.2%.
  • Trump’s temporary halt on refugees from seven specified countries yielded support from 51% of all respondents and 42% of Hispanics.
  • Collectively, 54% of Americans prefer that ObamaCare be expanded (34%) or left as is (20%) while 42% want Obamacare repealed.
  • Respondents expressed confidence that Trump will fulfill campaign promises such as improving manufacturing and keeping jobs in the U.S. (64%), building the border wall between the United States and Mexico (58%), and lowering and reforming taxes (53%).
  • Just 43% of Americans have a favorable opinion of Trump's presidential leadership so far and 48% view his leadership unfavorably. Of note, 49% of men approve of Trump's performance vs. 38% of women. President Obama's overall approval rating had climbed to 55% by the end of his two terms in office, after being in the 40s for most of his presidency.
  • Fewer than half (46%) think Trump did a good job managing the transition, just 41% say he appointed the right people to Cabinet positions, and only 44% give him top grades for his overall performance.

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index Reflects Americans’ Confidence in Trump
A key component of the IBD/TIPP poll is the Economic Optimism Index, which provides the earliest take on consumer confidence each month and predicts with good reliability monthly changes in sentiment in well-known polls by The Conference Board and the University of Michigan. February’s index again registered positive gains, climbing for the fourth straight month. It gained 0.8 points, or 1.4%, in February, posting a reading of 56.4 vs. the previous high of 55.6 in January 2017. It is also notable that the February index is 6.4 points above its 12-month average of 50.0, 12.0 points above its reading of 44.4 in December 2007 when the economy entered the last recession, and 7.3 points above its all-time average of 49.1.

The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has three key components. This month, two of the index components improved.

  • The Six-Month Economic Outlook, a measure of how consumers feel about the economy’s prospects in the next six months, declined 0.4 points, or 0.7%, to 55.6, slightly lower than January’s reading of 56.0. For perspective, the sub-index was 32.1 when the economy entered the last recession in December 2007. Eighteen of the 21 groups that IBD/TIPP tracks scored in optimistic territory.
  • The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months, continued to grow, gaining 0.5 points, or 0.8%, to 62.8. This replaces last month’s reading of 62.3 as the most positive reading since October 2013. All but one of the 21 groups IBD/TIPP tracks scored in optimistic territory.
  • Confidence in Federal Economic Policies, a proprietary IBD/TIPP measure of views on how government economic policies are working, climbed 2.4 points, or 4.9%, to 50.9. This is a particularly notable jump over January’s 48.5 because February marks the first time this component has yielded a positive reading since February 2007. It also continues the upward trajectory of the past few months. Thirteen of the 21 demographic groups tracked were above 50.

“Americans are hopeful that Donald Trump will deliver on his promises to boost U.S. employment and grow the economy,” said Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica, IBD's polling partner. “The stock market is in an uptrend, with the Dow Jones Index closing above 20,000 for the first time, and the U.S. also created 227,000 jobs in January, vs. the 175,000 jobs expected. These encouraging signs are why many Americans see a bright future for the U.S. economy under Trump.”

“Our optimism data are clear,” said Terry Jones, Commentary Editor of Investor’s Business Daily. “Americans were looking for a shakeup in economic policy and think they got it with President Trump. If Trump continues to fulfill his promises and job growth continues, it could be a very solid year for the economy.”

The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is the earliest take on consumer confidence each month and predicts with good reliability monthly changes in sentiment in well-known polls by The Conference Board and the University of Michigan. The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is based on a survey of about 900 adults chosen at random nationwide. The national poll is generally conducted in the first week of the month by live interviewers and both cell phone and landlines.

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