Stratfor Forecasts Conflicting Trade Agendas and Emerging Great Power Competition to Drive Geopolitical Risk in the Third Quarter of 2018

AUSTIN, Texas, June 11, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Stratfor, the world’s leading geopolitical intelligence firm, forecasts conflicting trade agendas, high-stakes talks with North Korea and the emerging great power rivalry between the United States, Russia and China to drive both international business and political risk in the third quarter of 2018. Stratfor’s 2018 Third-Quarter Forecast builds upon the firm’s 2018 Annual Forecast and helps Fortune 500 companies, governments and globally engaged professionals across industries understand the directionality of key global trends so they can measure the impact of trade frictions, identify potential supply chain disruptions, mitigate risk and anticipate new opportunities.

Stratfor identifies the deepening U.S-China economic competition as the primary geopolitical risk this quarter with the expectation of new tariffs, sanctions and restrictions on investment. “China not only has the tools to manage the economic blow, but will also accelerate efforts to lessen its reliance on foreign-sourced technological components,” said Stratfor Vice President of Global Analysis Reva Goujon. “Companies and U.S. allies, particularly South Korea and Taiwan, that are deeply integrated in U.S.-China technological supply chains, will bear the brunt of this economic battle.”

Additional geopolitical developments Stratfor forecasts for the third quarter include:

  • Whether U.S. and North Korean leaders can muster the political will to develop a framework for denuclearization.
  • The outlook for Moscow’s efforts to break a negotiating stalemate with the United States on sanctions, military build-ups and arms control.
  • Iran and Saudi Arabia’s next steps as Tehran sees its oil exports drop due to new U.S. sanctions and as Riyadh works to keep oil markets balanced.
  • The European Union’s battle for relevance in the face of growing U.S. unilateralism and rising Euroskeptic governments.

We enter the quarter with several key negotiations still pending and a world weary from bracing itself for the next White House maneuver. “Although the contradictions in U.S. policy are taxing much of the world, this prolonged state of confusion is par for the course as the world muddles through a blurry transition from the post-Cold War world to an emerging era of great power competition,” Goujon noted.

Countries on shakier economic ground this quarter that Stratfor also highlights in the forecast include Turkey, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, South Africa, India and Venezuela.

The complete 2018 Third-Quarter Forecast is now available to Stratfor enterprise, team and individual members at Stratfor Worldview. Looking back at the first half of 2018, Stratfor’s correct forecasts thus far include: the United States and China avoiding a full-blown trade war despite more aggressive trade barriers; the inability to reach an agreement on NAFTA renegotiations; escalating military strikes and retaliations between Israel and Iran in Syria; Russia’s outreach to China and Japan to insulate itself against U.S. and European sanctions; and the rise of Euroskeptic parties in Italy that came to fruition on June 1.

About Stratfor
As the world's leading geopolitical intelligence firm, Stratfor brings valuable context to global events, empowering businesses, governments and individuals to more confidently navigate their way through an increasingly complex international environment. By leveraging a deep understanding of history, politics and geography in conjunction with our unique methodology, Stratfor delivers informed perspectives on today's events and develops a more accurate view of the future. Information about individual, team and enterprise membership is available at


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