FBN Releases November Yield Report for U.S. Corn and Soybeans: Corn Slightly Higher at 173 and Lowest Soybean Estimate of the Season at 49.7

Drought Impacts on Mississippi Barge Traffic Taking a Toll on Farmers East of the Mississippi River; Corn Prices Hit Hard in Export Export Sensitive Areas of the US Due to Unprecedented Low Water Levels on the Mississippi Rivers

SAN CARLOS, Calif. and CHICAGO, Nov. 08, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Farmers Business Network (FBN®), the global farmer-to-farmer AgTech platform and farmer-to-farmer network, today released its November U.S. Corn and Soybean Yield Report, the fourth in FBN’s monthly series of 2022 yield reports published through December. FBN’s commodity forecasts are based on unique FBN member survey data on harvest yields.

“Our data set is unique because we combine modeling with input from our farmer members as they are harvesting,” said FBN Chief Economist Kevin McNew. “This forecast suggests that, though up from our previous forecast, corn at 173 bushels per acre is still below last year’s total and would be the tightest stocks situation seen in several years. And our U.S. soybean yield estimate at 49.7 bushels is the lowest U.S. estimate so far this season.”

FBN Yield Report Key Findings

FBN forecasts slightly higher U.S. corn yield at 173 bushels per acre versus the USDA’s October estimate at 171.9 bushels. This would not significantly alter the fundamentals, but would ease the tightening stocks situation. Now, stocks are seen closer to the 1.1 billion-bushel mark and below USDA’s latest forecast. FBN’s forecast of 173 is still below last year’s total and would be the tightest stocks seen in several years.

For soybeans, a yield at 49.7 bushels would be just 0.1 bushel shy of the USDA’s October report. Ending stocks are seen near the 175 million bushel level, which is slightly smaller than the USDA.

For both crops, a key takeaway is that yield forecasts are not seen as being drastically different and have not significantly changed much over time.

With harvest well past the halfway mark at this stage, demand will be eyed closely. Also under careful watch is the weather in South America. Brazil’s planting season is off to a smoother start than neighboring Argentina, where rains are needed.

The high-price environment is expected to remain a feature this crop year for now. Downside risks are tied to South America and weather, but it still is early to get significant impacts to yields. Weather into late 2022 and early 2023 will be key for summer crops there.

Another downside risk is tied to demand, or at least the ability to use the U.S. water system, which is suffering from low water levels that require barges to be less than fully loaded. This is having ripple effects on US wheat and corn's price competitiveness in world markets. Supportive elements besides the reduction in U.S. stocks are tied to falling global supplies of feed grains, input prices, traffic out of the Black Sea and Europe’s short corn crop.

For more details on the current Black Sea situation, see FBN’s Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine War: Six Months Later report, published in October 2022.

Key Findings For Corn

  • FBN’s U.S. corn yield estimate is 173 bushels.
  • Compared to our previous data analysis, yields in South Dakota, Ohio, Missouri and Iowa were boosted by one bushel, while yields in Nebraska and Illinois increased by two bushels.
  • Generally speaking, the most recent harvest progress pulled yields higher.
  • Overall, most state yields are still below last year’s figures with only Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri and North Dakota yields currently faring better than 2021 totals.


A photo accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/4667185a-26b2-40a3-b0db-6da083994fbf

2022 vs 2021 Corn Yield Harvest Results

A photo accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/604ae013-9f5f-4ec5-a33b-7e062ca2e76b

Corn Growers Impacted by Mississippi Barge Traffic Decrease Due to Drought

The FBN November Corn and Soy Yield Report also cites the impact on demand for corn which is currently impacted by Mississippi River barge rates (lower chart) over the past 8 weeks and how the basis (metric for farmer price) across the region has varied.

  • Corn prices are being hard hit in export sensitive areas of the US as a result of unprecedented low water levels on the Mississippi rivers.
  • FBN has found that farmers in AR/MS as well as segments of IL, IN, OH, KY are the hardest hit in terms of price impacts with losses of 50 cents a bushel or more. Even though water levels have improved somewhat in the past week, export flows are still highly constrained and impacting farmer prices still today.
  • Deep red areas have seen 50 cents or more in basis reduction. Even though barge rates are backing down, they still are well above normal for this time of year.
  • Areas West of the Mississippi River experienced limited impact, likely thanks to ample demand sources in those regions. But, the AR/MS region and Ohio River area are seeing greater impact due to limited alternative demand sources to absorb the excess supplies.

2022 Corn Basis and Barge Rates vs 5-Year Avg

A photo accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/4ca780f3-80b2-4fc5-bc86-c2bbf1106e8e

Key Findings For Soybeans

  • FBN’s U.S. soybean yield estimate is 49.7 bushels.
  • This is the lowest U.S. estimate so far this season, based on member-contributed data.
  • Compared against the previous data analysis, state yields increased in Ohio, Nebraska, and Indiana, but dropped in Minnesota and Illinois.


A photo accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/e2be628b-d28f-49e3-8793-b5e5899e1305

Nov2022vs2021 Soy Yield Harvest Results

A photo accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/631249e1-b912-4ce7-8507-fc246960484b

FBN Research will release the year’s final yield report in December. FBN’s model-based yield estimates are now coming to an end for the 2022 crop season. The FBN Research team will progress away from model-based estimates and instead shift to actual field observation analysis as FBN members contribute more data.

About FBN

Farmers Business Network® (FBN®) is an independent AgTech platform and farmer-to-farmer network with a mission to power the prosperity of family farmers around the world while working towards a sustainable future. Its Farmers First® promise has attracted over 48,000 members to the network with a common goal of helping farmers maximize their farm’s profit potential with data and technology enabled direct-to farmer commerce, community and sustainability offerings. FBN has set out to redefine value and convenience for farmers by helping reduce the cost of production and maximize the value of their crops. The FBN® network has grown to cover more than 105 million acres of member farms in the US, Canada, and Australia. Blending the best of Midwestern agricultural roots and Silicon Valley technology, the company has over 900 personnel and principal offices in San Carlos, CA, Chicago, IL, Sioux Falls, SD, a Canadian Headquarters in High River, Alberta, and an Australian Headquarters in Perth with significant warehouse and logistics, remote and field employees across the US, Canada and Australia.

To learn more, visit: www.fbn.com

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