BOSTON, Dec. 5, 2003 (PRIMEZONE) -- Paul McWilliams of the pmcw Report (http://www.pmcwreport.net/), recently wrote a report to his members outlining the Semiconductor Industry Association's October sales report. "October is historically a good month for semiconductor sales, but this October was remarkable from several perspectives. October 2003 was the second highest October on record - only 8.4% less than the 2000 record and 14.2% more than October 1999."
A semiconductor veteran of over twenty-years, McWilliams isn't particularly surprised with the results. "We've been calling for a turn in semiconductor issues since Q4 2002. Fortunately our readers were able to take advantage and profit from our outlook ahead of the recent surge in share prices."
Since its September 9, 2002 inception, his report's equity portfolio has returned a staggering 302%, well outdistancing the Nasdaq's 51% gain.
Looking forward, McWilliams believes that "unless there is a catastrophic turn in the world economy, 2004 will be an even better year than 2003."
While he's bullish on the industry's outlook, McWilliams clearly states that 2004 will certainly not be "Easy Street." To a great extent he believes that "finding good values today is much more difficult than it was a year ago." McWilliams thinks that the primary challenge will be "for investors to identify value and trends before they are realized by the broad market." He says this is a primary goal of his report.
He also commented on Intel's (Nasdaq:INTC) Q3 guidance saying "I don't feel those who listened to the Q3 call should feel disappointed, expectations were a bit unrealistic." McWilliams feels that Intel will exceed the consensus estimate, believes the "unrealistic disappointment will jumpstart a December dip he's been predicting for over a month. I feel Intel is fairly valued below $35, but might be able to be bought during the next week or so below $31."
Recently McWilliams has also made the following company-specific comments:
National Semiconductor (NYSE:NSM) -- "I tend to think a fair value is somewhere around $44 to $46 - with a squint, maybe as high as $50."
Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN) -- "Texas Instruments is due to provide a mid-quarter update on 12/8 that is almost certain to please the bulls."
Zoran (Nasdaq:ZRAN) -- "Recent strategic changes in Taiwan lead me to believe the pricing power for one of my old favorites, Zoran, might be in trouble."
Agilent (NYSE:A) -- "I think the semiconductor test sector will outperform many expectations...it appears Agilent might be the most attractive value of the major players, but none are what I would call value priced."
Samples of his ideas include (with maximum potential gain since the idea was presented):
-- LSI Logic (NYSE:LSI) gained 223%, Vishay (NYSE:VSH) gained 192%
and Altera (Nasdaq:ALTR) gained 134% since his October mentions
-- Zoran (Nasdaq:ZRAN) gained 144% since his February mention
-- Corning (NYSE:GLW) gained 95%, Ciena (Nasdaq:CIEN) gained 50%,
ADC Telecom (Nasdaq:ADCT) gained 24% and Tellabs (Nasdaq:TLAB)
gained 40% since his March mentions
-- Sonic Solutions (Nasdaq:SNIC) gained 178% since his May mention
-- Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) gained 32% since his June mention
-- Ford (NYSE:F) gained 18% since his August mention
Those interested in reading his detailed reports and recommendations can sign up for a free thirty-day trial to his service: http://www.pmcwreport.net/join.php3?refer=PZ14
About the pmcw Report
The pmcw Report is a subscription financial newsletter managed by semiconductor veteran Paul McWilliams and Raging Bull co-founder Rusty Szurek. Members enjoy daily postings, economic updates and a model portfolio.
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