SHREVEPORT, La., May 19, 2005 (PRIMEZONE) -- StockPickReport.Com (IARD #119079, http://www.stockpickreport.com -- the web's only non-mainstream stock rating service), rates Lucent, EMC Corporation, Home Depot, Red Hat Inc.
STOCKPICKREPORT RATINGS:
Lucent (NYSE:LU) -- BUY
http://www.stockpickreport.com/abrating.php?sym=LU
EMC Corporation (NYSE:EMC) -- WEAK BUY
http://www.stockpickreport.com/abrating.php?sym=EMC
Home Depot (NYSE:HD) -- WEAK BUY
http://www.stockpickreport.com/abrating.php?sym=HD
Red Hat Inc. (Nasdaq:RHAT) -- WEAK BUY
http://www.stockpickreport.com/abrating.php?sym=RHAT
Thursday, May 19, 2005 StockPickReport Commentary Wrong and Not Proud Don Harrold, Co-Founder
You know, the hardest thing to do is admit you're wrong. Tonight, I have to admit I judged the market wrong over the last few days.
The thing is I continue to believe that the market is more top-sided and due to pull back. But, the "irrational exuberance" of the last week is, well, a bit unexplainable.
Pundits say that inflation worries are diminishing. Others claim oil prices dropping are a catalyst. Still more folks think the market was just "due" for a pop.
Gotta tell you, I don't think any of those reasons is any better than another. They all are reason enough to spark a rally, I suppose. But, that's not the thing on my mind.
What's on my mind is, "What do I pick now?" That's what I'm thinking about. I was wrong about the market dropping this week, and now I need to forge ahead.
Buffet and Suncor
Neil Batho, Columnist
Next time you see Warren Buffett, tell him he was wrong. Why? Because the U.S. dollar just gave a relative strength buy signal against the Euro, and he has a huge short position against the dollar. Remember yesterday when we were talking about relative strength. Well, this is the first relative strength buy signal since December 2000 for the U.S. dollar against the Euro! Relative strength charts move extremely slowly, and are a great way to get in on the overall trend. If any of you trade FOREX, then be sure to be biased in your approach to a strong U.S. dollar. If you want a mutual fund that can help you out in this regard, try this:
http://www.profunds.com/profiles/profile.asp?id=131
Why is the U.S. dollar strengthening? Well, European Finance ministers argue all the time about different targets they have to meet for deficits etc. and they never meet them. Europe's unemployment rate is much higher than in the U.S., and ever since the Euro has come in, real wages have gone down in Germany. All is not well in Europe as some may want you to believe.
Because of this unexpected strength of the U.S. dollar, we'd better do as we say and take back our recommendation on "GLD" for the moment. This is the gold ETF. Sure, we might be down about 2% on this trade, but it's better to get out than stay wrong.
This has been quite a nice two day rally. So... is this the BOTTOM? We get asked that a lot. This is certainly "a" bottom, but is this the "final" bottom where we touch no more? Anyone that tells you does not know for sure. One thing is for sure... many stocks have come down from great heights to touch their trendlines. One of them is U.S. Steel that we mentioned a few days ago. It has rallied 5% since. Steel and other metal stocks are inversely proportional to the U.S. dollar. So, as the dollar weakens, it becomes cheaper for foreigners to buy from the U.S. companies.
And... vice versa.
That's one of the reasons that these stocks have fallen (uh oh... here we go, I am starting to sound like a Wall Street analyst telling the exact reasons...). Couple that with the perception of slower growth in Asia and these stocks plummeted 30%. Even though the U.S. dollar is strengthening, the stock anticipated the rising dollar and has since corrected. See, that's how stocks work. Even if there is still growth in the industry, yet the growth slows (but is still growing!), the stocks get hit hard. That's exactly what happened with Netflix, if you remember that stock.
I am holding my Suncor in my portfolio but I am going to buy some protective puts on it. That way, should I decide to hold it and the stock goes down, I'll do well on the put option, and may exercise them, or just sell them to someone else. To be a great trader you can't be lazy. You have to be proactive. If you're wrong, just admit it and get it over with. If you need a protective put, buy one. If your stops get hit, get out. If you have a winner... let it run.
Don't think of your account in terms of what it will "COST YOU" to sell at a loss if you have one. If you can totally emotionally detach yourself from the market, and do the right thing, then you'll do spectacularly well. The funny thing is, most people intuitively know something is the right thing to do, yet fail to do it. There is even an element of a "fear of success" somehow in the human psyche.
It's true.
Athletes deal with it all the time. If you keep winning, then there's an increased expectation on you, but when you lose, it easy to say how tough it is out there. Be a winner.
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If the links to our ratings above do not work, please use these:
Lucent (NYSE:LU) -- BUY
http://www.stockmonthly.com/LU-Stock-Research.php
EMC Corporation (NYSE:EMC) -- WEAK BUY
http://www.stockmonthly.com/EMC-Stock-Research.php
Home Depot (NYSE:HD) -- WEAK BUY
http://www.stockmonthly.com/HD-Stock-Research.php
Red Hat Inc. (Nasdaq:RHAT) -- WEAK BUY