COLUMBUS, OH--(Marketwire - July 1, 2010) - For every two steps forward, the economy seems to take two steps back as June same store sales forecasts look more like January predictions than the April high, according to ForecastIQ® (a service from Prosper Technologies, LLC). However, the number of retailers expected to almost certainly see a decline has lessened since the beginning of the year indicating a glimmer of hope in the rocky recovery ahead.
Total Number for Retailers Tracked
| JUNE-2010 | APR-2010 | JAN-2010 | ||||
| Almost certain increase* | 4 | 8 | 4 | |||
| Likely increase | 5 | 10 | 4 | |||
| Flat | 4 | 1 | 4 | |||
| Likely decline | 8 | 4 | 4 | |||
| Almost certain decline | 6 | 4 | 11 |
*An "almost certain increase" indicator for June means that in July and August, retailers are almost certain to experience same store sales growth from the same period a year ago.
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Indicators for July and August forecast that BJ's, Costco, Ross and TJX all are almost certain to see growth in same store sales (which mirrors their May forecasts).
Among youth specialty retailers, Aeropostale has moved to the "likely to see an increase" column from being flat last month and Abercrombie & Fitch also improved from an almost certain decline to a flat indicator.
On the other hand, high-end retailers are off from last month with Neiman Marcus dropping to likely to see an increase (from almost certain) and Saks now likely to experience decline (from flat).
Department stores and specialty retailers that target adults don't fare as well. Dillard's, JC Penney and Gap are all almost certain to post a decline and Banana Republic and Bon-Ton are likely to see a decline in their same store sales numbers.
A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ® and expectations for same store sales year-over-year growth/decline through August follows:
| Almost certain to see increase: | Almost certain to see decline: | |||
| BJ's | Dillard's | JC Penney | ||
| Costco | Gap | Stage | ||
| Ross | Hot Topic | Steinmart | ||
| TJX | ||||
| Likely to see increase: | Likely to see decline: | |||
| Aeropostale | American Eagle | Old Navy | ||
| Neiman Marcus | Banana Republic | Saks | ||
| Fred's | Bon-Ton | Wet Seal | ||
| Nordstrom | Buckle |
| Flat: |
| Abercrombie & Fitch |
| Cato's |
| Children's Place |
About ForecastIQ®
ForecastIQ® was developed by Prosper Technologies and Greg Allenby by analyzing over 8 years of data from the BIGresearch® monthly Consumer Intentions & Actions® (CIA™) surveys based upon future spending plans of consumers and the same store sales of over 27 publicly held retailers, by applying Bayesian quantile analysis to the data. The results are accurate and provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in advance. Same store sales forecasts are provided by percent growth over the next 45 and 75-day period. Short-term forecasts are also available via enhanced consensus estimates.
About Prosper Technologies
Prosper Technologies develops software applications that provide consumer-centric analytics to marketers/retailers for better forecasting consumer demand, allocating marketing dollars, tracking consumer behaviors and understanding cross-shopping patterns.
Contact Information:
Contact:
Phil Rist
614-846-0146