WASHINGTON, July 2, 2015 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- PredictIt.org, the real-money political prediction market of Victoria University, has been seeing significant trading activity in the last three days on markets related to the future of Greece.
Traders are particularly active in a market asking whether this Sunday's referendum, to approve proposed bailout terms, will pass. Over 14,000 shares have been traded in the 48 hours since this market opened, with the outcome seeming difficult to call. Traders are rating the odds of passage at only 45%.
Three thousand shares have also been traded, over the same period, in a market on whether Greece will leave the euro in 2015. The market closed at a 56% likelihood of a so-called "Grexit" on June 28th, but has since fallen to 30%.
Many experts believe that prediction markets are more accurate than opinion polls or the expectations of pundits because they aggregate the wisdom of thousands of people and are, thus, less prone to bias or individual distortion.
In the case of Greece, traders on PredictIt are voting with their wallets in a manner that appears to be significantly at odds with the consensus expert opinion that Greece's days in the eurozone are coming to an end.
About PredictIt
PredictIt is a project of Victoria University, operated with the support of Aristotle International, a U.S. non-partisan political technology company. Its purpose is educational. Prediction markets, like this one, are attracting a lot of academic and practical interest. So, you get to play for fun, investing modest amounts in your informed predictions, while helping the experts better understand the wisdom of the crowd.