WASHINGTON, Sept. 14, 2015 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- In the run-up to Wednesday night's debate, U.S. traders on the real money political prediction market, PredictIt, are voting with their wallets that Jeb Bush will be the GOP nominee. In so doing, they appear to be discounting the importance of polls, showing a different outcome more than 13 months prior to the 2016 election.
While national polls show Bush in third place, behind Trump and Carson, PredictIt traders appear confident that Bush will be the eventual GOP presidential nominee. Bush's market value remains steady at 38 percent while Trump has hovered around 20 percent. Carson is wavering at 16 percent and Fiorina is at 17 percent.
Over 336,600 shares have been traded on whether or not Donald Trump will be the Republican presidential nominee by some of the 32,600 registered users, making Trump one of the most popular topics carried since the prediction market opened to U.S. traders late last year.
Of the nearly 7 million shares traded on PredictIt this year, just under 1 million shares have centered on the Republican presidential nomination.
"Nothing is certain and nine months can be a lifetime in politics but, we've come to accept that when the market diverges from 'consensus expert opinion', or public opinion polling, it's the markets that are right in the end. I would not bet against PredictIt traders, in the aggregate," said John Aristotle Phillips, CEO of Aristotle, which provides technical support for the operation of PredictIt.
"By correctly predicting outcomes 89 percent of the time, year-to-date and in dozens of markets, traders may be at an advantage when it comes to peering into the future," said Phillips.
Unlike polls, where respondents tell the survey taker who they like or support, traders in a prediction market like PredictIt are acting more dispassionately, investing real money in what they expect will happen. Those who study prediction markets have found that distinction results in more accurate projections of what will transpire.
Traders appear to be having a lot of fun at the same time. "PredictIt takes my interest in prediction markets and stock trading, and combines it with my daily intake of political news," reports one of Predictit's top ROI traders.
Traders and political insiders will be gathering at Capitol Hill's famed Union Pub this Wednesday to watch the market react to the debate in real time. New markets created specifically for Wednesday's debate include:
1. Which candidate will get the most speaking time at the first-tier CNN debate?
2. What will the average viewership be for the first-tier CNN debate?
3. Which candidate will see the best polling impact from the first-tier CNN debate?
4. Which candidate will see the worst polling impact from the first-tier CNN debate?
About PredictIt
PredictIt is a project of Victoria University, operated with the support of Aristotle International, a U.S. non-partisan political technology company. Its purpose is educational. Prediction markets, like this one, are attracting a lot of academic and practical interest. So, you get to play for fun, investing modest amounts in your informed predictions, while helping the experts better understand the wisdom of the crowd.
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