CARLSBAD, California, Dec. 10, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Brian Buffini, founder and chairman of Buffini & Company, North America’s foremost real estate coaching and training company, aired his eagerly anticipated "Bold Predictions: 2025 Real Estate Market Outlook" broadcast.
Watch the broadcast now.
Buffini was joined by special guest Dr. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist with the National Association of REALTORS®, who shared his expert insights on what housing has in store next year.
During the exclusive hour-long broadcast, Buffini interviewed Yun about NAR’s latest housing market predictions to give real estate professionals an inside look at where mortgage rates, home sales, inventory and the economy are headed in 2025.
Overall, Yun said he sees reasons for optimism, including the potential for increased home construction and a more stable economic and policy environment following the 2024 election.
Buffini also shared a recap of the top issues impacting the industry, with real talk about future market conditions and how agents and brokers will need to level up their businesses to meet the moment we’re in.
Here’s a recap of the top 2025 housing market predictions Buffini and Yun covered in the broadcast.
Mortgage rates
Despite everyone’s hopes that mortgage rates would fall to more affordable levels, expect only moderate declines in 2025, Yun said. While higher than in the recent past, consumers are growing used to mortgage rates in the 7% range, so a drop to the low 6% mark might feel like a "deal" to many buyers.
“Let's not try to anticipate 3%, 4% or 5% mortgage rates,” Yun said. “The new normal would be around 6%.”
Yun said he expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates further in 2025 but made it clear that those cuts doesn’t necessarily mean we’ll see lower mortgage rates. In fact, 30-year mortgage rates tend to more closely track movements in the longer-term 10-year Treasury.
Home sales
Yun projected that home sales, which totaled just over 5 million units prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, could reach that level again within the next 18 months. He forecasts a 10% increase in home sales in 2025, followed by a similar gain in 2026.
"I would not be surprised if we reach it much sooner, say, within an 18-month time span," Yun said.
In 2023, there were 4.1 million home sales, Yun said. That’s the lowest level in nearly 30 years. And although NAR is still tallying up 2024 figures, sales are tracking a similar trajectory to 2023, he noted.
Real estate professionals will have to do more to help assuage jittery buyers’ fears to keep transactions on track, Buffini noted.
“In July 2024, we had 60,000 transactions that fell out of contract. And you know what happened? Nothing. There was no difference in the market,” Buffini pointed out. “We just have more and more skittish buyers, more and more skittish sellers, and in my opinion, more and more untrained, unskilled people in the space.”
Housing supply
The most recent available data shows there’s 30% higher inventory currently compared to the same time period a year ago, Yun said. Real estate agents should anticipate more listings in 2025, which automatically means more business opportunities.
Yun hinted that increased home construction would ease inflationary pressures on housing costs, allowing the Federal Reserve to make deeper interest rate cuts.
“We need more supply, so if we have more supply, that will keep the housing component of inflation much calmer, which means that the Federal Reserve will make even deeper cuts,” Yun said.
Yun also referred to Trump's comments about deregulation and opening up some federal lands for more home building, which could help but not many specifics are known yet about those plans.
Economic performance
Yun made it clear he doesn’t see an economic recession on the horizon despite a lot of noise to the contrary.
"Given that business confidence has been raised, [businesses] can expand more and hire more people,” he said. “Anytime there's job growth, that's very positive for the housing market," Yun said.
With President-elect Donald Trump promising an era of deregulation and cuts in government spending, Yun said this could help bring down mortgage rates from their current elevated levels.
Yun pointed out that with a soaring national debt level from the government borrowing and spending, that means there’s less mortgage money out there for banks to lend out.
The real state of real estate
Buffini agreed with Yun’s overall assertion that the housing market is poised for a gradual rebound next year. However, he warned that the industry faces significant challenges, including a growing divide between top-performing agents and those struggling to stay afloat.
Buffini noted the high number of NAR members in the United States who sold zero homes last year, and how only 73% were certain they’d remain in the business over the next two years. He attributed this trend in part to newer, less-skilled agents who’ve entered the market since the pandemic.
"We have the most unskilled real estate agents running around of all times," Buffini said. "And there's reasons for it. We had an 11-year run up in prices. We've had a 14-year shortage of inventory. And you get into a certain mode. You cannot be a C-player in real estate. It means pain and poverty and stress and anxiety.”
Yun’s best advice for real estate agents to prosper in the business? Keep at it.
“It's an entrepreneurial field, which means that some people do very well, while other people give it their best try but it wasn't their best bet,” Yun said. “In any given year, we have about 200,000 new Realtors trying it out, and we have about 200,000 who gave it a try and then they dropped out of the profession. This shows the competitiveness of the industry.”
Buffini chimed in that he feels Yun’s estimate is low and expects closer to 300,000 agents to leave the business.
Yun mentioned that the top 20% of Realtors tend to close the bulk of the transactions and do well in the business.
“They go consistently into the six-figure, gross-commission income, and our survey results from consumers show that 90% of recent homebuyers and recent home sellers said they essentially love their Realtors.”
Looking ahead
Buffiini predicted that teams will be a more significant part of the industry in the new year and beyond.
“It is still, and has been for the last few years, the largest, fastest growing component of real estate,” Buffini said of teams. “What we're seeing is younger millennials and older Gen Zs that are entering the real estate space. They're getting real estate degrees, but they're joining real estate teams, and that's where they want to go.”
Buffini noted that the dream of American homeownership is still an ideal many families have in their sights.
“There’s so many statistics that show that owning a home is a great thing for a family, it's a great thing for a community, and more and more people having access to home ownership only benefits a culture and a country,” Buffini said. “So we're going to keep banging that drum.”
To address these challenges, Buffini touted the recent launch of the Certified Full-Service Professional (CFSP) training program to help agents define themselves as full-time, full-service professionals. The program includes on-demand learning modules on branding, customer service and objection handling so that real estate professionals can articulate their value and earn their rightful compensation.
"It helps real estate agents provide full professional services and charge appropriate professional fees," Buffini said. "It's a hard business. You need to be able to articulate and communicate your value and say, ‘Here’s what I charge.’”
Buffini said the program is designed to help agents deliver an "industry-leading experience" that exceeds client expectations and earns referrals and repeat business.
The full "Bold Predictions 2025" broadcast is now available on-demand. Watch now for Buffini’s full interview with Yun and even more insights about what agents need to do to prepare for the year ahead.
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About Buffini & Company
Buffini & Company is the largest coaching and training company in North America. Founded by real estate legend and master motivator Brian Buffini, the company provides a unique and highly-effective lead generation system. Buffini & Company’s comprehensive business coaching, training programs and cutting-edge content have helped more than 3 million professionals in 45 countries improve their business, increase net profit and enhance their quality of life. To learn more about Buffini & Company, visit www.buffini.com.
