SHREVEPORT, La., May 2, 2005 (PRIMEZONE) -- StockPickReport.Com (IARD #119079, http://www.stockpickreport.com - the web's only non-mainstream stock rating service), rates SPDR Trust, Time Warner Inc., Brocade Communications Systems Inc., Juniper Networks.
STOCKPICKREPORT RATINGS:
SPDR Trust (AMEX:SPY) - SELL http://www.stockpickreport.com/abrating.php?sym=SPY Time Warner Inc. (NYSE:TWX) - SELL http://www.stockpickreport.com/abrating.php?sym=TWX Brocade Communications Systems Inc. (Nasdaq:BRCD) - WEAK SELL http://www.stockpickreport.com/abrating.php?sym=BRCD Juniper Networks (Nasdaq:JNPR) - SELL http://www.stockpickreport.com/abrating.php?sym=JNPR Monday, May 2, 2005 StockPickReport Commentary Historical Precedence Neil Batho, Columnist
Some of the most successful traders of all time are contrarians. They buy asset classes when they are barely on the radar, forgotten about, or hated. These are the people that bought gold in the 200's. They bought the EURO three years ago, and they bought home builders three years ago. These are the traders that buy something and see a story two years alter on CNBC, then sit back as even more people buy. Then, they get out at the top. The best trader of all time some would say is George Soros. He shorted the British pound many years ago and is known as "the man who broke the pound". He made a billion dollars in one day. It's true. His right hand man was Jim Rogers. www.jimrogers.com Take a look at his site. He just drove around the world and broke a Guinness record in a customized convertible. He wrote a book about it called "Adventure Capitalist". I've read it and it's great.
Jim also wrote a book called "Hot Commodities" recently. Of course, Jim is the ultimate contrarian. He was in commodities years ago before they were popular. He even runs his own commodity fund you can invest in. With all commodity trends, they are extremely volatile. Will this trend in oil continue? No one knows. But we can trade based on what we expect and it we are wrong we'll get out. With trading, it's OK to be wrong. But it's NEVER OK to stay wrong.
Look at this quote today from today: "I have been following this industry for 18 years and I have never seen anything like this," Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Fadel Gheit said Friday. "It's like they're printing money." The results of the world's four largest oil companies illustrate just how well the industry has fared lately. Since the end of 2003, Royal Dutch/Shell Group of Cos., BP Group PLC, Exxon Mobil Corp. and ChevronTexaco Corp. have earned a combined $97 billion, including $23.8 billion during the first three months of this year. Although crude oil future prices retreated below the important psychological threshold of $50 per barrel Friday, Gheit and other industry analysts expect the industry boom to continue, largely because the demand for energy is expected to grow faster than the supply."
At this point, could we see a dip in oil stocks? Well, some have actually fallen quite a bit. Exxon Mobil is down 11% from its recent high. With gasoline prices at record highs, do we really want to be selling our oil stocks? Suncor is down 13% from its recent high. However, Suncor has a $2.4 billion expansion project to boost synthetic crude production by 55 percent to 350,000 barrels a day by 2008. So, for the long haul, hold onto that Suncor.
We expect the oil story to continue. Even if oil falls to $45/barrel, we will see that as a buying opportunity in oil stocks. The ride may be bumpy, but those are the ones that are the most fun anyway. There are enough ups and downs to shake people off and the ones that stay in will be the ones rewarded.
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If the links to our ratings above do not work, please use these:
SPDR Trust (AMEX:SPY) - SELL http://www.stockmonthly.com/SPY-Stock-Research.php Time Warner Inc. (NYSE:TWX) - SELL http://www.stockmonthly.com/TWX-Stock-Research.php Brocade Communications Systems Inc. (Nasdaq:BRCD) - WEAK SELL http://www.stockmonthly.com/BRCD-Stock-Research.php Juniper Networks (Nasdaq:JNPR) - SELL http://www.stockmonthly.com/JNPR-Stock-Research.php