Central government payments in February gave a surplus of SEK 56.2 billion. The Debt Office's forecast was a surplus of SEK 48.6 billion.
The surplus thus was SEK 7.6 billion larger than forecasted. This is explained by tax revenue being SEK 3 billion higher than expected and disbursements SEK 2 billion lower. Additionally net lending by the Debt Office was SEK 2 billion lower due to repo transactions* by government agencies.
We assess that the deviation in our forecast depends on normal variations in monthly government payments. Variations between months in the central government net borrowing requirement are extremely large. The large surplus in February is explained by the fact that many tax payers do supplementary tax payments for the previous income year. This year the government also received a payment of SEK 2 billion for shares divested in OMX AB. This is the largest surplus for a single month since June 2000. For information of the forecast for the whole year please see our report "Central Government Borrowing - Forecast and Analysis 2008:1", which can be found on www.riksgalden.se.
Interest payments on central government debt were SEK 1.2 billion, which was SEK 0.6 billion lower than expected.
The surplus for the twelve-month period up to the end of February amounted to SEK 140 billion.
The outcome for March 2008 will be published at 9.30 am on 7 April 2008.
Further information can be obtained from:
Tord Arvidsson, phone +46 8 613 47 53
* Repo transactions by government agencies mean that they sell government securities with a repurchase agreement. The payment of the repos must be deposited in an account at the Debt Office. If the total volume of outstanding repos change during the month compared to the previous turn of the month it will affect the outcome of the borrowing requirement. We make forecasts of the repo transactions on the basis of the information we receive from the government agencies. However, the forecast are very uncertain since the government agencies may alter their plans on a short notice.
