LANSING, MI--(Marketwire - October 27, 2010) - Most Michigan retailers -- 58 percent -- expect better sales this holiday season, and their overall projections are the best since 2004.
On average, retailers project a 6 percent gain in sales compared to last year, according to the Michigan Retail Index survey, a joint project of Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. A closer look shows that 28 percent expect to increase sales by more than 5 percent, with 30 percent increasing sales by 5 percent or less.
Only 10 percent project a decrease, with 32 percent expecting no change from last year.
"Retailers are the most optimistic in six years about the holidays," said James P. Hallan, MRA president and chief executive officer.
"Sales have increased two months in a row, Michigan's unemployment rate continues to inch downward, and there appears to be more optimism and expectation of change for the better throughout the state."
U.S. holiday sales projections include 2.3 percent by the National Retail Federation and upwards of 3.5 percent by the International Council of Shopping Centers.
The Michigan Retail Index survey for September found that 41 percent of retailers increased sales over the same month last year, while 36 percent recorded declines and 23 percent saw no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 56.7, up from 46.9 in August. A year ago September, the sales performance index stood at 42.5.
Index values above 50 generally indicate an increase in overall retail activity.
Looking ahead, 43 percent of retailers expect sales during the 4th Quarter to improve over the same period last year, while 28 percent project a decrease and 29 percent no change. That puts the seasonally adjusted outlook index at 56.3, up from 51.9 in August. A year ago September, the sales outlook index stood at 49.2.
Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.
Michigan Retail Index
September 2010 results
Index figures dating to July 1994 are available at www.retailers.com/news/retailindex.html
September Performance
Retailers reporting increased, decreased or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same month a year ago
(numbers in parentheses indicate August results)
| % Increased | % Decreased | % No Change | Index* | Responses | ||||||
| Sales | 41 (43) | 36 (43) | 23 (14) | 56.7 (46.9) | 120 (84) | |||||
| Inventory | 23 (41) | 33 (25) | 44 (34) | 44.4 (52.4) | 119 (83) | |||||
| Prices | 19 (23) | 8 (10) | 73 (67) | 55.4 (55.2) | 119 (82) | |||||
| Promotions | 31 (25) | 8 (15) | 61 (60) | 64.0 (56.7) | 120 (83) | |||||
| Hiring | 10 (7) | 12 (15) | 78 (78) | 49.0 (43.7) | 120 (83) |
Outlook for Next 3 Months
Retailers expecting increased, decreased or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same period a year ago
(numbers in parentheses indicate August results)
| % Increased | % Decreased | % No Change | Index* | Responses | ||||||
| Sales | 43 (42) | 28 (27) | 29 (31) | 56.3 (51.9) | 120 (84) | |||||
| Inventory | 23 (37) | 28 (28) | 49 (35) | 47.0 (48.8) | 119 (83) | |||||
| Prices | 23 (24) | 7 (6) | 70 (70) | 58.4 (58.9) | 119 (83) | |||||
| Promotions | 38 (43) | 8 (11) | 54 (46) | 63.8(61.8) | 120 (82) | |||||
| Hiring | 7 (5) | 11 (7) | 82 (88) | 46.3 (46.3) | 119 (82) |
September Sales Performance & Outlook for Next 3 Months, by Region
(the first number indicates sales performance for the month; the number in parentheses indicates outlook for the next three months)
| % Increased | % Decreased | % No Change | ||||
| North | 53 (26) | 37 (48) | 10 (26) | |||
| West | 42 (39) | 30 (33) | 28 (28) | |||
| Central | 50 (63) | 29 (12) | 21 (25) | |||
| East | 37 (0) | 50 (62) | 13 (38) | |||
| Southeast | 25 (57) | 50 (14) | 25 (29) |
Question of the Month
What is your current expectation for your percentage sales increase or decrease, compared to last year, for the holiday season?
Average 6%
| Increase more | Increase 5% | Same | Decrease 5% | Decrease more | ||||
| than 5% | or less | or less | than 5% | |||||
| 28% | 30% | 32% | 4% | 6% |
*Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. A diffusion index, which is the sum of the percent of respondents indicating increase and half the percent indicating no change, is calculated and then seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Census Bureau's X-11 Seasonal Adjustment procedure. Index values above 50 generally indicate an increase in activity, while values below 50 indicate a decrease.
Contact Information:
Contact:
Tom Scott
517.372.5656