CHICAGO, IL--(Marketwire - Nov 21, 2011) - The national auto delinquency rate (the rate of borrowers 60 or more days past due) decreased on a year-over-year basis for the eighth consecutive quarter, dropping from 0.58% in Q3 2010 to 0.47% Q3 2011. However, auto delinquencies rose slightly for the quarter, moving up from 0.44% in Q2 2011. This is according to TransUnion and its ongoing series of quarterly analyses of credit-active U.S. consumers and how they are managing credit related to mortgage, credit cards and auto loans.
Although auto delinquencies were expected to rise slightly this quarter due in part to seasonal influences, the Q3 2011 TransUnion data released today continues to show a moderate deceleration on a year-over-year basis since the third quarter of 2010.
"Increases in third quarter delinquency rates from the quarter before have been the rule rather than the exception, even today. In fact, third quarter rates have consistently been greater than second quarter rates since 2000 -- primarily due to seasonal influences," said Peter Turek, automotive vice president in TransUnion's financial services business unit. "The number of new auto loans coming on the books has continued trending upward since the end of the recession. A primary driver of this is relaxed lending policies of creditors. However, on a year over year basis, delinquencies have now dropped for eight consecutive quarters even in the face of increased lending to the subprime market."
Between the second and third quarters of 2011, 15 states experienced decreases in their auto delinquency rates. On a more granular level, 54% of metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) saw increases in their delinquency rates last quarter. During the second quarter of 2011, 40% of MSAs experienced a rise in auto delinquency rates compared to only 36% in Q1 2011.
"The good news is that national auto delinquency rates are still at historic lows and should remain so this year as the demand forecast for new and used vehicles indicates continued growth," added Turek. "Lenders, consumers, and dealers are expected to benefit during this period of gradual recovery and expansion. Barring any substantial changes in the macro economic environment, we see auto delinquency rates early next year remaining near current record lows. However, there is some upward pressure building on delinquency rates as long periods of high unemployment and low consumer sentiment take their toll on consumers."
TransUnion's forecast is based on various economic assumptions, such as unemployment rates, consumer sentiment, disposable income, and interest rates. The forecast changes as the economy deviates from a conservative economic forecast or if there are unanticipated shocks to the economy affecting recovery.
Q3 2011 Bank Auto Statistics - Delinquency Rates
| Quarter over Quarter | Q2 2011 | Q3 2011 | Pct. Change | ||
| USA | 0.44% | 0.47% | 6.82% |
| Year over year | Q3 2010 | Q3 2011 | Pct. Change | ||
| USA | 0.58% | 0.47% | (18.97%) |
| Highest Bank Auto Delinquency States | Q3 2011 |
| Louisiana | 0.88% |
| Mississippi | 0.86% |
| District of Columbia | 0.70% |
| Tennessee | 0.69% |
| Lowest Bank Auto Delinquency States | Q3 2011 |
| North Dakota | 0.13% |
| Minnesota | 0.22% |
| Montana | 0.23% |
| Alaska | 0.25% |
| Top 3 Year-over-Year Increases | Q3 2010 | Q3 2011 | Pct. Change | ||
| Wyoming | 0.23% | 0.38% | 65.22% | ||
| Maine | 0.48% | 0.55% | 14.58% | ||
| Maryland | 0.41% | 0.46% | 12.20% |
| Top 3 Year-over-Year Declines | Q3 2010 | Q3 2011 | Pct. Change | ||
| Vermont | 0.52% | 0.27% | (48.08%) | ||
| North Dakota | 0.23% | 0.13% | (43.48%) | ||
| Hawaii | 0.80% | 0.47% | (41.25%) | ||
Q3 2011 Bank Auto Statistics - Bank Auto Debt Per Borrower
| Quarter over Quarter | Q2 2011 | Q3 2011 | Pct. Change | ||
| USA | $12,689.00 | $12,902.00 | 1.68% |
| Year over Year | Q3 2010 | Q3 2011 | Pct. Change | ||
| USA | $12,500.00 | $12,902.00 | 3.21% |
| Highest Bank Auto Debt Per Borrower | Q3 2011 |
| District of Columbia | $15,790 |
| Wyoming | $14,597 |
| Maryland | $14,282 |
| Utah | $14,212 |
| Lowest Bank Auto Debt Per Borrower | Q3 2011 |
| Nebraska | $11,183 |
| Ohio | $11,542 |
| Kansas | $11,725 |
| Missouri | $11,739 |
| Top 3 Year-over-Year Increases | Q3 2010 | Q3 2011 | Pct. Change | ||
| South Dakota | $11,399 | $12,381 | 8.61% | ||
| North Dakota | $12,392 | $13,384 | 8.01% | ||
| Washington | $12,622 | $13,555 | 7.39% |
| Top 3 Year-over-Year Declines | Q3 2010 | Q3 2011 | Pct. Change | ||
| Hawaii | $14,298 | $14,096 | (1.42%) | ||
| Michigan | $12,201 | $12,099 | (0.84%) | ||
| Nevada | $13,714 | $13,648 | (0.48%) | ||
Supporting Resources/Links
TransUnion Trend Data Interactive U.S. Map
TransUnion 3Q11 Credit Card Release
TransUnion 3Q11 Mortgage Release
TransUnion Payment Hierarchy Study
TransUnion Deleveraging Analysis
TransUnion on Twitter
TransUnion's Trend Data database
The report is part of an ongoing series of quarterly consumer lending sector analyses focusing on credit card, bank auto loan and bank auto data available on TransUnion's Web site. Information for this analysis is culled from TransUnion's Trend Data and the anonymous credit files of approximately 10 percent of credit-active U.S. consumers, providing a real-life perspective on how they are managing their credit health.
TransUnion's Trend Data, a one-of-a-kind database consisting of 27 million anonymous consumer records randomly sampled every quarter from TransUnion's national consumer credit database. Each record contains more than 200 credit variables that illustrate consumer credit usage and performance. Since 1992, TransUnion has been aggregating this information at the county, Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), state and national levels. For the purpose of this analysis, the term "credit card" refers to those issued by banks.
About TransUnion
As a global leader in information and risk management, TransUnion creates advantages for millions of people around the world by gathering, analyzing and delivering information. For businesses, TransUnion helps improve efficiency, manage risk, reduce costs and increase revenue by delivering high quality data, and integrating advanced analytics and enhanced decision-making capabilities. For consumers, TransUnion provides the tools, resources and education to help manage their credit health and achieve their financial goals. Through these and other efforts, TransUnion is working to build stronger economies worldwide. Founded in 1968 and headquartered in Chicago, TransUnion reaches businesses and consumers in 23 countries around the world. www.transunion.com/business
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TransUnion
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