New Birth Forecast Model Proves 99.8% Accurate Census Data Confirms Demographic Intelligence Forecast for 2011 Births

CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va., June 21, 2012 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The U.S. Census Bureau recently released their provisional count of 3,961,000 births in the United States from January 2011 through December 2011. The 2011 total was 1 percent lower than the 4 million births for 2010 (4,000,279). The U.S. Fertility Forecast released by Demographic Intelligence (DI) in April 2012 predicted total 2011 births of 3,964,000 in advance of the Census release. The difference of 3,000 births results in a 99.92% accuracy rate for the April Edition of the U.S. Fertility Forecast. While DI cannot guarantee future accuracy rates this high, the April forecast is successful in identifying the key indicators and drivers of fertility for women and couples now having children.

Demographic Intelligence works with top consumer product manufacturers, children's hospitals, insurance and pharmaceutical companies to track changing fertility trends and identify the most accurate predictors of U.S. births in the near and medium term.

Dr. Samuel Sturgeon, Director of Research for Demographic Intelligence, said, "The U.S. Fertility Forecast is valuable because the U.S. Census Bureau's birth projections are not calibrated to changes in the economy and culture, and academic research doesn't typically provide fine-grained projections of U.S. births on a short- or medium-term basis. DI is tracking the economic and cultural drivers of fertility that are so much in flux today because we realize that the United States may have entered a new normal when it comes to birth trends. Thus, Demographic Intelligence gives companies a clear sense of the demographic road ahead."

The current edition of the U.S. Fertility Forecast predicts births for 2011-2014 on a quarterly basis in addition to providing an analysis of birth trends by the age, ethnicity, race, and education of the mother.  Longer-term trends through 2025 are also provided. For customers that only need to know current birth trends for 2011-2012, an Express Summary of the U.S. Fertility Forecast is available for immediate download at www.demographicintel.com.   This report fills a critical gap for executives and analysts working in the juvenile products and health care industries.

About Demographic Intelligence

The analysts at Demographic Intelligence (DI) are experts in forecasting and identifying  the cultural and socioeconomic factors which drive demographic change in the United States. DI is also the premier provider of U.S. birth forecasts and fertility analytics for businesses with an interest in birth trends in the United States. DI provides reports and consulting services to companies in the following sectors: juvenile products, healthcare, media, financial services, consumer food, and household products. Demographic Intelligence is advised in its work by three leading demographers: Princeton economist Alicia Adsera, University of Pennsylvania demographer Hans-Peter Kohler, and Duke University demographer Philip Morgan.