Forecast International: Business Jet Recovery Finally Getting Underway

NEWTOWN, Conn., Oct. 20, 2014 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Forecast International has released a new study, "The Market for Business Jet Aircraft," in which the Connecticut-based market research firm predicts that 9,634 business jets will be produced during the 10-year period between 2014 and 2023. The value of this production is estimated at $255 billion in constant 2014 U.S. dollars.
 
According to the study, the business jet market is currently in the early stages of recovery.  This recovery got underway in 2013, when global production of business jets registered a slight increase after having declined for four consecutive years from 2009 through 2012.
 
The Forecast International projections indicate that business jet production will gradually, though steadily, increase from 719 aircraft in 2014 to a 10-year peak of 1,136 aircraft in 2020.  A two-year cyclical downturn in production is anticipated for the 2021-2022 timeframe, before build rates rebound in 2023.  Notably, the company does not expect that the 2008 production level of 1,314 business jets will be achieved in any year of the 2014-2023 period covered by the study.  Forecast International senior aerospace analyst Raymond Jaworowski said, "The current business jet market recovery is shaping up to be solid, but not spectacular.  Year-to-year production increases through 2020 are projected to be steady and gradual, not the explosive growth seen in the 2004-2008 period."
 
The study says that the market recovery appears to be ready to strengthen in the next few years.  Most market indicators are positive.  Economic growth is continuing, however sluggish it may be.  Corporate profits are strong.  Orders for new business jets are rising, and order backlogs at manufacturers have stabilized.  The inventory of used aircraft for sale is declining.  Flight activity is increasing.
 
At present, the recovery is strongest in the upper tiers of the market, where demand for long-range and large-cabin business jets is robust.  In the medium jet classes, the picture is a bit more mixed but is nevertheless improving.  However, in the lighter jet categories, demand is still somewhat weak.  Purchasers of light business jets tend to be concentrated in North America, a heavily saturated market still saddled with difficult economic conditions.
 
Meanwhile, business jet demand is strong and growing in most other regions of the world, particularly Asia and Latin America.  The outlook is more problematic in Europe, though here, too, market prospects are becoming brighter.
 
According to the projections contained in the Forecast International study, the top three manufacturers in terms of unit production during the 2014-2023 timeframe will be Cessna, Bombardier, and Embraer.  When the market is calculated in terms of the monetary value of production, the top three companies are expected to be Gulfstream, Bombardier, and Dassault.
 
Forecast International, Inc. (www.forecastinternational.com) is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics.  Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations, and governments worldwide.  To arrange an interview with Forecast International's editors, please contact Ray Peterson, Vice President, Research & Editorial Services (203) 426-0800, ray.peterson@forecast1.com. Questions regarding sales may be directed to sales@forecast1.com.