WASHINGTON, July 5, 2015 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- U.S. Traders on the political predictions market, PredictIt.org, appear to have correctly forecast a No outcome to today's referendum in Greece just before the close of polls at noon EDT.
For most of the past week, the referendum results have been regarded as too close to call, priced around 50 cents on the dollar. That equilibrium shifted dramatically just after 11 a.m. EDT, when the traded price fell as low as 4 cents (4%) for a Yes vote.
Traders' premonition may have proved correct: As of 1:45 p.m. EDT, unofficial results from the Greek electoral authority show the NO side ahead by a margin of 20 percentage points in the early count.
PredictIt 's accuracy stands in sharp contrast to that of the online European betting site Paddy Power, which closed its Greek referendum market on Wednesday and paid out wagers on a Yes vote. Paddy Power pronounced itself "convinced" Greeks would vote Yes.
Other European bookies seem to have been proved equally wrong in their predictions of a Yes vote.