SociallyMined (https://www.SociallyMined.com), a boutique agency leveraging social media data and analytics has been examining social media data and trends in advance of the 2020 Presidential election. SociallyMined used the July 19, 2019 NBC News Survey Monkey Poll as a baseline to compare the top contenders to what is trending on Twitter. According to the NBC News Survey Monkey Poll, the top five contenders, in order, are Biden (26%), Sanders (16%), Warren (16%), Harris (14%), and Buttigieg (8%).
SociallyMined analyzed the Twitter mentions of NBC News/Survey Monkey top five democratic hopefuls for the first three weeks of July (July 1st – 21st) and the results paint a telling storyline. Twitter data shows that Senator Kamala Harris led the pack with 2,194,465 mentions but was dwarfed by President Trump’s 27M+. Below is a ranking of mentions for the first three weeks of July.
- Donald Trump - 27,254.261
- Kamala Harris – 2,194,465
- Bernie Sanders- 1,584,269
- Elizabeth Warren – 1,262,380
- Joe Biden – 564,930
- Pete Buttigieg – 427,337
Kamala Harris has gained traction since the last debate and, as her mentions depict, she is someone who is being talked about more than all the other Democratic contenders. However, peeling back layers of the onion, data illustrates that Harris also led with 41% negative sentiment (871,852 negative mentions). The next closest democratic competitor is Warren at 36% negative, while Trump also scored a 36% negative rating.
SociallyMined analyzed the 2020 mentions of NBC’s top five candidates vs. Trump and broke down the sentiment of the total mentions to uncover the level of support each candidate was generating from the online Twitter community. In assessing overall sentiment, we developed a Positive Impact Rating™ (PIR) that combined the positive and neutral to identify the potential positive impact of the mentions. Below is a chart that compares the candidate’s sentiment, including positive, negative, neutral and PIR. Note that the results are ranked by PIR:
| Candidate | Positive | Negative | Neutral | PIR |
| Pete Buttigieg | 47% | 25% | 28% | 75% |
| Joe Biden | 38% | 32% | 30% | 68% |
| Bernie Sanders | 34% | 33% | 33% | 67% |
| Donald Trump | 37% | 36% | 27% | 64% |
| Elizabeth Warren | 36% | 36% | 28% | 64% |
| Kamala Harris | 30% | 41% | 29% | 59% |
Mayor Pete Buttigieg leads all candidates examined in PIR as well as overall positive sentiment but also trails dramatically in total mentions. Below is a snapshot of SociallyMined’s PIR rankings vs. the NBC News/Survey Monkey Poll. The side-by-side comparison highlights some commonalities. First, Biden remains a strong contender whereas Warren and Harris are not gaining the momentum that many in the media perceive. Lastly, whether first in Twitter PIR or last in the top five of the NBC Survey Monkey Poll, Buttigieg has moved into the top-tier and should not be overlooked.
| NBC News Survey Monkey Poll | Twitter Positive Impact Rating |
| Biden | Buttigieg |
| Sanders | Biden |
| Warren | Sanders |
| Harris | Warren |
| Buttigieg | Harris |
“2020 will be an interesting case-study of the Twitterverse vs. traditional polling”, stated Matt Anthes, CEO of SociallyMined. “Traditionally, polling has been done via telephone and the fact is the number of home phones or landlines in the US has plummeted year-over-year and those who receive unknown numbers on their mobile devices just aren’t answering them. Therefore, it’s fair to ask if millennials are participating in today’s polls or if it’s just an older generation”, explained Anthes.
In 2019, Twitter has 126M daily active users. According to Statistica, in 2004 more than 90 percent of households in the U.S. had an operational landline phone - now it’s little more than 40 percent. With the US population at 329M, that translates into 132M landlines vs. 126M daily active Twitter users.
With landlines trending toward obsolete, online surveys are gaining more traction. Twitter sentiment, however, is slow to gain momentum even though social media has had a tremendous impact on most recent Presidential Elections, starting with Obama in 2008.
“The NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll was conducted online July 2-16 with a national sample of 13,553 registered voters”, wrote Bloomberg’s Max Berley. “Although web-based surveys aren’t considered as reliable as polls conducted by telephone, the results are roughly in line with an aggregation of polls produced by RealClearPolitics.”
As the 2020 campaign forges along, SociallyMined will continue to analyze social media data in an effort to illustrate candidate sentiment and engagement, to determine the pulse of the next generation of voters.
About SociallyMined
SociallyMined (www.sociallymined.com) is a boutique data-driven digital agency which leverages data and analytics to understand what people are saying online and employs a creative approach to reaching an audience efficiently and effectively. SociallyMined services incorporate cutting-edge technologies designed for Fortune 500 brands, utilizing big data and analytics to track relevant sentiment and behavior, while providing a strategy to influence the sentiment and direct it towards favorable outcomes. Their analytic solutions are integrated into their other services which focus on advocacy and politics and include influencer marketing, and more, providing a customized strategic campaign for their clients generating high engagement with a relevant audience. In addition, they offer diverse traditional services which include web design, social media campaigns, and video production.
SociallyMined’s political division offers the ability to understand a candidate’s social audience and then creates ways to target a specific sub-audience who have relevant interests and followers within desired demographics and/or psychographic profiles. This includes generating content, identifying the potential audience, pushing out the content, and engaging them in creating a community for a candidate who can then be retargeted repeatedly as the campaign grows – all while providing reports to track impact.
The SociallyMined team is comprised of industry leaders with experience dealing directly with political candidates, non-profits, governments, brands, and entertainment. SociallyMined understands an audience and ensures a message is being heard by those influencers and decision makers that can affect change and make an impact for brands, issue-advocacy, and individual campaigns. For additional information related to the above please email us at info@sociallymined.com.