SANTA MONICA, Calif., March 27, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar, and the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects total new vehicle sales will reach 941,735 units in March 2020, down 37% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 10.7 million units. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 656,343 units, a decrease of 38% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
“March is traditionally a strong retail month and was off to a good start. As we inched closer to the middle of the month and the Coronavirus was declared a global pandemic, that triggered unprecedented protective measures from local and federal governments, and we began to see a stark drop in auto sales,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst at ALG.
“Economic uncertainty, coupled with health and safety concerns, have made consumers hesitant to visit dealer showrooms and make large purchases,” added Lyman. “However, the industry is rapidly pivoting to remote retailing practices and automakers and lenders have launched deferment programs and steep incentives to help ease consumer apprehensions. These offerings should help buoy demand a bit in the short-term.”
Additional Insights: (Forecast by ALG)
- Total retail sales for March 2020 are expected to be down 37% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Fleet sales for March 2020 are expected to be down 12% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Total SAAR is expected to decrease 38% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days from 17.4 million units to 10.7 million units.
- Used vehicle sales for March 2020 are expected to reach 2,707,235, down 29% from a year ago and down 24% from February 2020.
- The average interest rates on new vehicle loans is 6.53%, based on TrueCar data.
“While new and used vehicle sales are both down year-over-year, used sales declines aren’t as steep, signaling a shift in demand to vehicles at lower price points,” said Nick Woolard, Director of OEM and Affinity Partner Analytics at TrueCar. “As incentives surface to assist with new vehicle affordability and the price delta between new vehicles and recent model year used vehicles shrinks, we can expect to see the demand even out between new and used.”
ALG’s Revised COVID-19 2020 New Vehicle Sales Forecast:
March 2020 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume: (Adjusted for same selling days as March 2019.) For additional data visit the ALG Newsroom.
Total Unit Sales
| Manufacturer | Mar 2020 Forecast | Mar 2019 Actual | Feb 2020 Actual | YoY % Change | YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) | MoM % Change | MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
| BMW | 20,901 | 36,148 | 27,476 | -42.2% | -37.6% | -23.9% | -20.9% |
| Daimler | 17,839 | 30,627 | 26,088 | -41.8% | -37.1% | -31.6% | -28.9% |
| FCA | 117,473 | 200,307 | 183,926 | -41.4% | -36.7% | -36.1% | -33.6% |
| Ford | 138,914 | 230,382 | 189,561 | -39.7% | -34.9% | -26.7% | -23.8% |
| GM | 159,282 | 271,205 | 238,448 | -41.3% | -36.6% | -33.2% | -30.5% |
| Honda | 82,848 | 148,509 | 120,006 | -44.2% | -39.8% | -31.0% | -28.2% |
| Hyundai | 36,985 | 62,627 | 54,600 | -40.9% | -36.2% | -32.3% | -29.6% |
| Kia | 34,169 | 55,814 | 52,177 | -38.8% | -33.9% | -34.5% | -31.9% |
| Nissan | 83,576 | 150,768 | 99,253 | -44.6% | -40.1% | -15.8% | -12.4% |
| Subaru | 34,553 | 61,601 | 51,695 | -43.9% | -39.4% | -33.2% | -30.5% |
| Tesla | 9,939 | 13,000 | 20,450 | -23.5% | -17.4% | -51.4% | -49.5% |
| Toyota | 126,153 | 214,947 | 195,407 | -41.3% | -36.6% | -35.4% | -32.9% |
| Volkswagen Group | 36,680 | 62,577 | 50,390 | -41.4% | -36.7% | -27.2% | -24.3% |
| Industry | 941,735 | 1,608,662 | 1,373,324 | -41.5% | -36.8% | -31.4% | -28.7% |
Retail Unit Sales
| Manufacturer | Mar 2020 Forecast | Mar 2019 Actual | Feb 2020 Actual | YoY % Change | YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) | MoM % Change | MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
| BMW | 19,084 | 35,078 | 25,949 | -45.6% | -41.2% | -26.5% | -23.5% |
| Daimler | 13,371 | 28,767 | 23,734 | -53.5% | -49.8% | -43.7% | -41.4% |
| FCA | 62,541 | 151,141 | 128,833 | -58.6% | -55.3% | -51.5% | -49.5% |
| Ford | 90,954 | 133,947 | 133,421 | -32.1% | -26.7% | -31.8% | -29.1% |
| GM | 115,705 | 225,578 | 167,530 | -48.7% | -44.6% | -30.9% | -28.2% |
| Honda | 74,446 | 146,800 | 115,944 | -49.3% | -45.2% | -35.8% | -33.2% |
| Hyundai | 21,713 | 47,194 | 40,427 | -54.0% | -50.3% | -46.3% | -44.1% |
| Kia | 22,917 | 46,868 | 41,844 | -51.1% | -47.2% | -45.2% | -43.0% |
| Nissan | 46,714 | 101,269 | 68,324 | -53.9% | -50.2% | -31.6% | -28.9% |
| Subaru | 28,833 | 58,448 | 48,423 | -50.7% | -46.7% | -40.5% | -38.1% |
| Tesla | 9,939 | 13,000 | 20,450 | -23.5% | -17.4% | -51.4% | -49.5% |
| Toyota | 97,554 | 191,463 | 166,441 | -49.0% | -45.0% | -41.4% | -39.0% |
| Volkswagen Group | 29,656 | 56,395 | 44,783 | -47.4% | -43.2% | -33.8% | -31.1% |
| Industry | 665,343 | 1,292,614 | 1,078,492 | -48.5% | -44.4% | -38.3% | -35.8% |
Fleet Unit Sales
| Manufacturer | Mar 2020 Forecast | Mar 2019 Actual | Feb 2020 Actual | YoY % Change | YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) | MoM % Change | MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
| BMW | 1,816 | 1,070 | 1,527 | 69.8% | 83.4% | 18.9% | 23.7% |
| Daimler | 4,469 | 1,860 | 2,354 | 140.2% | 159.4% | 89.8% | 97.4% |
| FCA | 54,932 | 49,166 | 55,093 | 11.7% | 20.7% | -0.3% | 3.7% |
| Ford | 47,960 | 96,435 | 56,140 | -50.3% | -46.3% | -14.6% | -11.2% |
| GM | 43,577 | 45,627 | 70,918 | -4.5% | 3.1% | -38.6% | -36.1% |
| Honda | 8,401 | 1,709 | 4,062 | 391.5% | 430.8% | 106.8% | 115.1% |
| Hyundai | 15,271 | 15,433 | 14,173 | -1.0% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 12.1% |
| Kia | 11,252 | 8,946 | 10,333 | 25.8% | 35.8% | 8.9% | 13.2% |
| Nissan | 36,862 | 49,499 | 30,929 | -25.5% | -19.6% | 19.2% | 23.9% |
| Subaru | 5,719 | 3,153 | 3,272 | 81.4% | 95.9% | 74.8% | 81.8% |
| Tesla | - | - | - | ||||
| Toyota | 28,599 | 23,484 | 28,966 | 21.8% | 31.5% | -1.3% | 2.7% |
| Volkswagen Group | 7,024 | 6,182 | 5,607 | 13.6% | 22.7% | 25.3% | 30.3% |
| Industry | 276,392 | 316,048 | 294,832 | -12.5% | -5.6% | -6.3% | -2.5% |
Fleet Penetration
| Manufacturer | Mar 2020 Forecast | Mar 2019 Actual | Feb 2020 Actual | YoY % Change | MoM % Change | |||||
| BMW | 8.7 | % | 3.0 | % | 5.6 | % | 193.7 | % | 56.3 | % |
| Daimler | 25.1 | % | 6.1 | % | 9.0 | % | 312.4 | % | 177.6 | % |
| FCA | 46.8 | % | 24.5 | % | 30.0 | % | 90.5 | % | 56.1 | % |
| Ford | 34.5 | % | 41.9 | % | 29.6 | % | -17.5 | % | 16.6 | % |
| GM | 27.4 | % | 16.8 | % | 29.7 | % | 62.6 | % | -8.0 | % |
| Honda | 10.1 | % | 1.2 | % | 3.4 | % | 781.1 | % | 199.6 | % |
| Hyundai | 41.3 | % | 24.6 | % | 26.0 | % | 67.6 | % | 59.1 | % |
| Kia | 32.9 | % | 16.0 | % | 19.8 | % | 105.4 | % | 66.3 | % |
| Nissan | 44.1 | % | 32.8 | % | 31.2 | % | 34.3 | % | 41.5 | % |
| Subaru | 16.6 | % | 5.1 | % | 6.3 | % | 223.4 | % | 161.6 | % |
| Tesla | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | ||||
| Toyota | 22.7 | % | 10.9 | % | 14.8 | % | 107.5 | % | 52.9 | % |
| Volkswagen Group | 19.1 | % | 9.9 | % | 11.1 | % | 93.8 | % | 72.1 | % |
| Industry | 29.3 | % | 19.6 | % | 21.5 | % | 49.4 | % | 36.7 | % |
Total Market Share
| Manufacturer | Mar 2020 Forecast | Mar 2019 Actual | Feb 2020 Actual | |||
| BMW | 2.2 | % | 2.2 | % | 2.0 | % |
| Daimler | 1.9 | % | 1.9 | % | 1.9 | % |
| FCA | 12.5 | % | 12.5 | % | 13.4 | % |
| Ford | 14.8 | % | 14.3 | % | 13.8 | % |
| GM | 16.9 | % | 16.9 | % | 17.4 | % |
| Honda | 8.8 | % | 9.2 | % | 8.7 | % |
| Hyundai | 3.9 | % | 3.9 | % | 4.0 | % |
| Kia | 3.6 | % | 3.5 | % | 3.8 | % |
| Nissan | 8.9 | % | 9.4 | % | 7.2 | % |
| Subaru | 3.7 | % | 3.8 | % | 3.8 | % |
| Tesla | 1.1 | % | 0.8 | % | 1.5 | % |
| Toyota | 13.4 | % | 13.4 | % | 14.2 | % |
| Volkswagen Group | 3.9 | % | 3.9 | % | 3.7 | % |
Retail Market Share
| Manufacturer | Mar 2020 Forecast | Mar 2019 Actual | Feb 2020 Actual | |||
| BMW | 2.9 | % | 2.7 | % | 2.4 | % |
| Daimler | 2.0 | % | 2.2 | % | 2.2 | % |
| FCA | 9.4 | % | 11.7 | % | 11.9 | % |
| Ford | 13.7 | % | 10.4 | % | 12.4 | % |
| GM | 17.4 | % | 17.5 | % | 15.5 | % |
| Honda | 11.2 | % | 11.4 | % | 10.8 | % |
| Hyundai | 3.3 | % | 3.7 | % | 3.7 | % |
| Kia | 3.4 | % | 3.6 | % | 3.9 | % |
| Nissan | 7.0 | % | 7.8 | % | 6.3 | % |
| Subaru | 4.3 | % | 4.5 | % | 4.5 | % |
| Tesla | 1.5 | % | 1.0 | % | 1.9 | % |
| Toyota | 14.7 | % | 14.8 | % | 15.4 | % |
| Volkswagen Group | 4.5 | % | 4.4 | % | 4.2 | % |
Quarterly Tables
Total Unit Sales, Quarterly
| Manufacturer | Q1 2020 | Q1 2019 | Q4 2019 | YoY % Change | YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) | QoQ % Change | QoQ % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
| BMW | 69,901 | 82,793 | 100,952 | -15.6% | -16.7% | -30.8% | -28.9% |
| Daimler | 69,114 | 78,878 | 105,885 | -12.4% | -13.5% | -34.7% | -33.0% |
| FCA | 438,415 | 500,870 | 538,710 | -12.5% | -13.6% | -18.6% | -16.5% |
| Ford | 499,458 | 586,956 | 604,198 | -14.9% | -16.0% | -17.3% | -15.2% |
| GM | 632,871 | 665,005 | 735,497 | -4.8% | -6.1% | -14.0% | -11.7% |
| Honda | 304,421 | 369,787 | 420,752 | -17.7% | -18.8% | -27.6% | -25.7% |
| Hyundai | 135,598 | 151,787 | 190,189 | -10.7% | -11.8% | -28.7% | -26.8% |
| Kia | 126,607 | 136,596 | 149,788 | -7.3% | -8.5% | -15.5% | -13.3% |
| Nissan | 262,624 | 365,851 | 309,353 | -28.2% | -29.2% | -15.1% | -12.9% |
| Subaru | 132,532 | 156,754 | 177,167 | -15.5% | -16.6% | -25.2% | -23.2% |
| Tesla | 49,190 | 46,900 | 48,239 | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 4.7% |
| Toyota | 487,623 | 543,716 | 613,486 | -10.3% | -11.5% | -20.5% | -18.4% |
| Volkswagen Group | 131,974 | 149,618 | 168,233 | -11.8% | -13.0% | -21.6% | -19.5% |
| Industry | 3,340,326 | 3,835,511 | 4,300,460 | -12.9% | -14.1% | -22.3% | -20.3% |
Retail Unit Sales, Quarterly
| Manufacturer | Q1 2020 | Q1 2019 | Q4 2019 | YoY % Change | YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) | QoQ % Change | QoQ % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
| BMW | 70,256 | 80,158 | 92,992 | -12.4% | -13.5% | -24.4% | -22.5% |
| Daimler | 60,202 | 73,937 | 102,312 | -18.6% | -19.6% | -41.2% | -39.6% |
| FCA | 274,885 | 377,632 | 406,214 | -27.2% | -28.2% | -32.3% | -30.5% |
| Ford | 326,248 | 366,169 | 443,331 | -10.9% | -12.1% | -26.4% | -24.5% |
| GM | 414,409 | 508,509 | 532,562 | -18.5% | -19.6% | -22.2% | -20.1% |
| Honda | 297,439 | 366,537 | 416,814 | -18.9% | -19.9% | -28.6% | -26.8% |
| Hyundai | 100,834 | 108,615 | 163,358 | -7.2% | -8.4% | -38.3% | -36.6% |
| Kia | 101,592 | 108,963 | 131,832 | -6.8% | -8.0% | -22.9% | -20.9% |
| Nissan | 177,832 | 247,219 | 270,912 | -28.1% | -29.0% | -34.4% | -32.6% |
| Subaru | 122,901 | 147,682 | 171,157 | -16.8% | -17.9% | -28.2% | -26.3% |
| Tesla | 49,190 | 46,900 | 48,239 | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 4.7% |
| Toyota | 398,355 | 465,616 | 580,907 | -14.4% | -15.6% | -31.4% | -29.6% |
| Volkswagen Group | 113,579 | 134,786 | 160,055 | -15.7% | -16.8% | -29.0% | -27.2% |
| Industry | 2,507,723 | 3,032,723 | 3,678,198 | -17.3% | -18.4 | -31.8% | -30.0% |
Total Market Share, Quarterly
| Manufacturer | Q1 2020 | Q1 2019 | Q4 2019 | |||
| BMW | 2.1 | % | 2.2 | % | 2.3 | % |
| Daimler | 2.1 | % | 2.1 | % | 2.5 | % |
| FCA | 13.1 | % | 13.1 | % | 12.5 | % |
| Ford | 15.0 | % | 15.3 | % | 14.0 | % |
| GM | 18.9 | % | 17.3 | % | 17.1 | % |
| Honda | 9.1 | % | 9.6 | % | 9.8 | % |
| Hyundai | 4.1 | % | 4.0 | % | 4.4 | % |
| Kia | 3.8 | % | 3.6 | % | 3.5 | % |
| Nissan | 7.9 | % | 9.5 | % | 7.2 | % |
| Subaru | 4.0 | % | 4.1 | % | 4.1 | % |
| Tesla | 1.5 | % | 1.2 | % | 1.1 | % |
| Toyota | 14.6 | % | 14.2 | % | 14.3 | % |
| Volkswagen Group | 4.0 | % | 3.9 | % | 3.9 | % |
Retail Market Share, Quarterly
| Manufacturer | Q1 2020 | Q1 2019 | Q4 2019 | |||
| BMW | 2.8 | % | 2.6 | % | 2.5 | % |
| Daimler | 2.4 | % | 2.4 | % | 2.8 | % |
| FCA | 11.0 | % | 12.5 | % | 11.0 | % |
| Ford | 13.0 | % | 12.1 | % | 12.1 | % |
| GM | 16.5 | % | 16.8 | % | 14.5 | % |
| Honda | 11.9 | % | 12.1 | % | 11.3 | % |
| Hyundai | 4.0 | % | 3.6 | % | 4.4 | % |
| Kia | 4.1 | % | 3.6 | % | 3.6 | % |
| Nissan | 7.1 | % | 8.2 | % | 7.4 | % |
| Subaru | 4.9 | % | 4.9 | % | 4.7 | % |
| Tesla | 2.0 | % | 1.5 | % | 1.3 | % |
| Toyota | 15.9 | % | 15.4 | % | 15.8 | % |
| Volkswagen Group | 4.5 | % | 4.4 | % | 4.4 | % |
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.’s operations.)
About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 55 years and in Canada since 1981.
About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new and used cars -- all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam’s Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in Austin, Texas and Boston, Massachusetts.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email: pr@truecar.com
TrueCar and ALG PR Contact:
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