A prolonged price rally is expected in the global potassium chloride (MOP) market owing to anticipated supply chain disruptions after the U.S., the UK, Canada and EU countries have imposed sanctions on a major supplier, Belarus Potash Company (BPC). Limited exports from Canada will be another factor instigating price growth. MOP prices have already started to rise in Brazil due to supply delays.
LOS ANGELES, Jan. 07, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- According to a recent report by a market research firm IndexBox, the average annual MOP price is projected to soar by 50% y-o-y to near $325 per tonne in 2022, based on a World Bank’s forecast. Sanctions on the Belarus Potash Company (BPC) imposed by the U.S., the UK, Canada, and the EU could lead to global supply chain disruptions. Combined with limited production in Canada, the leading supplier in the global potassium chloride market, this may cause local shortages in consuming countries and push prices up. World Bank’s data indicate that the average MOP price was $221 per tonne in November 2021.
Supply delays hit Brazil hardest, lifting spot potassium chloride prices to $825 per tonne in the first week of November 2021. Shipments from Canada, Russia and Belarus constitute 84% of Brazilian MOP import volume.
Under sanction pressure, Belarus redirects its export flows to Asian and South American countries, significantly ramping up MOP supplies to China, Thailand, Korea, Malaysia and Argentina. Belarus ranks third in the leading potassium chloride exporter ranking, following Canada and Russia.
Top Leading MOP Exporters Worldwide
Canada represented the major exporting country with an export of around 21M tonnes, which finished at 42% of total exports. Russia (9.2M tonnes) occupied the second position in the ranking, followed by Belarus (7.7M tonnes), Germany (3.4M tonnes) and Israel (3.3M tonnes). All these countries together occupied approx. 47% share of total exports. Jordan (2M tonnes) and the U.S. (1.2M tonnes) took a minor percentage of total exports.
In value terms, Canada ($4.5B) remains the largest potassium chloride supplier worldwide, comprising 37% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Belarus ($1.9B), with a 16% share of global exports. It was followed by Russia, with a 14% share.
Top Leading MOP Importers Worldwide
The U.S. (12M tonnes), Brazil (11M tonnes), and China (8.8M tonnes) represented roughly 58% of total imports of potassium chloride (MOP) in 2020. India (5.1M tonnes) occupied a 9.3% share (based on tonnes) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Indonesia (5.2%). The following importers - Malaysia (1.3M tonnes), Belgium (1.1M tonnes), Vietnam (1.1M tonnes) and Poland (1M tonnes) - each finished at an 8.1% share of total imports.
In value terms, Brazil ($2.8B), the U.S. ($2.5B) and China ($2.1B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2020, together accounting for 55% of global imports. India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Belgium, Vietnam and Poland lagged somewhat behind, accounting for a further 23%.
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Companies Mentioned in the Report. Potassium Chloride Manufacturers
Belarus Potash Company, Aarti Industries, Israel Chemicals, Uralkali, Cargill, Agrium, JSC Belaruskali, PotashCorp, Jiangsu Kolod, Nanchang BASF, Surya Fine Chem, Bostick & Sullivan, K S Kali GmbH, Mark-Chem, Heena Pharm, K+S Group, AKSELL, Mayur Chemical Industries, Lianyungang Hengsheng, Shaanxi Top Pharm, Superior Supplement Manufacturing, Superior Supplement Manufacturing, Tricura Gmbh & Co., Aurepio, Calmags Gmbh, Compag Handels Gmbh, Jäklechemie Gmbh & Co., Donauchem Gmbh, Prochem.
Sources
World - Potassium Chloride (MOP) - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
World - Crude Potash Salts (K2O Content) - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
World - NPK Fertilizers - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
EU - Potassium Chloride (MOP) - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
