SAN CARLOS, Calif. & CHICAGO, Ill., Jan. 10, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Farmers Business Network (FBN®), the global farmer-to-farmer AgTech platform and farmer-to-farmer network, today released FBN Research’s January 2023 Winter Wheat Seedings Report, resulting from a member survey asking how many acres of winter wheat were planted in the fall of 2022 and 2021. Responses totaled 325 across winter wheat producing states with results pointing to a boost in planted area, year over year.
FBN Winter Wheat Seedings Key Findings
Planted area increases are estimated for SRW and HRW with all US winter wheat planted area seen up 900,000 acres at 34.2 million for 2023/24 versus plantings for 2022/23.
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FBN Research suggests that the condition ratings in the fall do not paint a picture of a crop failure in the spring. Despite the poor conditions for the crop due in part to prolonged drought in the US Southern Plains, there is no clear conclusion that yields will be negatively impacted.
Winter wheat futures have been volatile for the 2022 calendar year, with a lot of that tied to the situation in the Black Sea. Looking at Kansas City futures specifically, the projected price - used in insurance policies - averaged at its highest level in nearly a decade. And when looking at new-crop futures and their relationship with planted area, prices indicated that planted acres would be close to the 35.2 million acre mark, which aligns directionally with our bias, but points to more area than what producers indicated per our survey results.
“US acres are not large enough to shift the undertone of shrinking global wheat supplies,” says FBN Senior Commodity Analyst Rejeana Gvillo. “Our estimate for US winter wheat acres suggests that it will take more than the US farmer to alter the undertone of shrinking global wheat supplies; the ongoing drought in US Southern Plains - which may have hampered fall plantings - is another concern . Given the acreage outlook, the drought in the Southern Plains will need to be broken come spring/summer or the US wheat balance sheet could tighten further.”
The survey pointed to no significant change to double cropped percentages in 2023 versus 2022. In the survey, FBN asked producers how many acres would be double cropped this year and how many were last year (soybeans following winter wheat). Double cropped acres have dropped significantly versus the highs hit with a lot of that tied to fewer acres of wheat being planted. In 2013, SRW planted area topped just over 10 million acres whereas in 2022, acres were 6.6 million. But with SRW wheat acres set to be up, double cropped acres could be up marginally as well too.
A photo accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/cce45a8e-af7b-4327-8304-ee4de413cd20
FBN Recommendations To Farmers
Ahead of this report, FBN recommended to producers to be collectively 30% sold on winter wheat. FBN issued recommendations on February 23, 2022, August 31, 2022, and September 29, 2022 for HRW and SRW. Each recommendation was to sell 10%. The average price we are sold at now is $9.08 for HRW (off Kansas City July 2023 futures) and $8.71 for SRW (off Chicago July 2023 futures).
Based on this acreage report, we are not in a rush to push more on coverage. However, we do encourage producers to get to our recommended level of percent sold. Given that price models indicated a higher plated area total, we could be underestimating planted area. Also, USDA’s initial acreage estimate in 2022 was notably larger than the final, and if that pattern were repeated again this year, new-crop futures could be impacted negatively.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions are solely those of the author as of the date of publication, are subject to change at any time due to market or economic conditions, will not be updated or supplemented after the date hereof and may not necessarily come to pass. The views and opinions expressed herein do not reflect those of all personnel at FBN BR LLC (FBN) or the views of the Farmer's Business Network Inc. as a whole.
Commodity trading, including futures, hedging and speculating, involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by FBN BR LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. FBN makes no representations, warranties, or guarantees as to this content.
A photo accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/fd3581ff-04c2-4167-b060-99aee088a1b3
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About FBN
Farmers Business Network® (FBN®) is an independent AgTech platform and farmer-to-farmer network with a mission to power the prosperity of family farmers around the world while working towards a sustainable future. Its Farmers First® promise has attracted over 55,000 members to the network with a common goal of helping farmers maximize their farm’s profit potential with data and technology enabled direct-to farmer commerce, community and sustainability offerings. FBN has set out to redefine value and convenience for farmers by helping reduce the cost of production and maximize the value of their crops. The FBN® network has grown to cover more than 117 million acres of member farms in the US, Canada, and Australia. Blending the best of Midwestern agricultural roots and Silicon Valley technology, the company has over 900 personnel and principal offices in San Carlos, CA, Chicago, IL, Sioux Falls, SD, a Canadian Headquarters in High River, Alberta, and an Australian Headquarters in Perth with significant warehouse and logistics, remote and field employees across the US, Canada and Australia.
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