Icelandair is issuing financial guidance for the full year 2024. Uncertainty in the operating environment, as reported in the 2023 results announcement on 1 February 2024, has decreased with diminishing impact of inaccurate international media coverage of the volcanic activity in Southwest Iceland on bookings and the conclusion of the collective bargaining agreements in the private sector in Iceland.
Capacity in 2024, as measured in Available Seat Kilometers (ASK), is expected to increase by 10% year-on-year. This growth is focused on capacity which has potential for strong revenue generation and will contribute to improved profitability. The largest growth was in Q1, or around 21%. Around 9% growth is expected in Q2 and Q3, and 6% in Q4.
Based on the financial results of the first two months of the year, current booking status and other key assumptions, Icelandair expects total revenue for the full year 2024 to be around USD 1.6 billion. The EBIT margin is expected to be in the 2-4% range, and net profit is expected to increase between years.
Revenue in the first quarter of 2024 was impacted by global media coverage of the volcanic activities in Southwest Iceland and significant capacity increases in certain markets, such as the UK, Frankfurt and Amsterdam, that put pressure on unit revenues. Therefore, the Q1 2024 EBIT results are projected slightly weaker than last year.
Full-Year Guidance 2024:
| Operating income USDbn | Total year | ~1.6 |
| EBIT % | Total year | 2-4% |
| Net capex USDm | Total year | ~130-140 |
| Capacity chg. (ASK) | Total year | ~10% |
| Av. Fuel price m/t USD | Q2-Q4 | 840 |
| Av. Weighted hedged fuel price m/t USD | Total year | 833 |
| Hedged % of est. fuel usage (tons) | Total year | 45% |
| Av. EUA per unit EUR | Q2-Q4 | 65 |
| Av. USD/ISK | Q2-Q4 | 138 |
The booking status for the summer, especially on the transatlantic market via Iceland, is good. The market from Iceland also continues to be strong. Iceland remains a popular destination, although demand to the country has somewhat weakened compared to last year, e.g. due to strong competition with other destinations and diminishing pent-up travel trends. Icelandair is in a strong position to use its flexibility to adjust its capacity to demand and shift focus in the route network between markets if necessary to maximize profitability. Despite the short-term negative impact that the volcanic activity in Southwest Iceland had on bookings at the start of the year, Iceland’s unique nature will continue to inspire tourist interest in the longer term. Furthermore, the newly concluded labor agreements raise hopes for increased economic stability, strengthening the country’s overall competitiveness which is crucial for the tourism industry to continue to flourish. Therefore, Iceland’s long-term prospects as a tourist destination remain strong.
The year 2023 marked the final year of Icelandair’s post-covid recovery and a return to profitability. Now, the focus is on actions that will further strengthen revenue generation and improve operational efficiencies. With this focus, Icelandair is on track to reach its long-term goal of an average 8% EBIT margin.
Contact information:
Investors: Iris Hulda Thorisdottir, Director Investor Relations. E-mail: iris@icelandair.is
Asdis Petursdottir, Director Communications. E-mail: asdis@icelandair.is
