Dublin, Aug. 14, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The "Global Risks 2024 and Beyond" report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering.
As economic and geopolitical uncertainties are on the rise, business leaders need to anticipate and respond proactively rather than reactively to potential shocks. By analysing alternative macro scenarios, this report highlights the top global risks over 2024-2026 and assesses their potential impacts on real GDP growth. It also ranks the vulnerability of economies to macro shocks, helping businesses to estimate market risks, develop more robust strategies, and better respond to negative shocks.
Key findings
Geopolitical tensions, economic challenges and climate change heighten uncertainty
As the global economy still faces difficulties in bouncing back from the macro shocks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, uncertainty continues to mount, as multiple geopolitical, economic and climate risks persist, and widen the range of possible outcomes for global growth.
The global economy faces seven alternative downside scenarios
Amid the high-risk environment, seven downside scenarios could pan out, impacting global and individual countries' economic growth and inflation: global stagflation, global fragmentation, commodity price hike, US hard landing, China slowdown, Europe downturn and Latin America downturn.
Global fragmentation and commodity price hike are the top global risk scenarios
Rising geopolitical risks keep the likelihood of supply-side shocks high, threatening trade disruptions and a surge in commodity prices. Global economic fragmentation and commodity price hike scenarios would affect production, increase costs for businesses and consumers, and significantly reduce global real GDP growth by 1.3-1.7 percentage points over 2024-2026.
Conflict-affected, recession-prone and open economies are more vulnerable to global shocks
Ukraine, Greece, Argentina and Croatia have been affected by war, political instability or recent severe recession, and rank as the highest risk economies in Euromonitor's Country Risk Index 2024. Meanwhile, the lowest risk economies are Australia, Norway and Sweden, given their strong economic fundamentals and resilience to external supply shocks.
Risks and vulnerabilities call for scenario analysis and operational resilience
Global macro shocks can affect both advanced and developing markets alike, requiring global businesses to be agile in any market they are operating in. Incorporation of alternative macroeconomic scenarios as part of market research leads to more robust strategy planning, and a better response to negative shocks.
Key Topics Covered:
Executive summary
- Key findings
Introduction
- Evolving global risks shape a new economic reality for businesses and consumers
- Growing uncertainty calls for scenario and risk analysis
Global baseline outlook
- Global baseline forecasts: Economic prospects improve but a deceleration is underway
- Economic uncertainty rises due to a range of economic, geopolitical and climate factors
- The global economy is facing a widening range of alternative outcomes
Top global risks
- Global scenario map: Prevailing downside risks driven by geopolitical and economic factors
- Global Risk Index (GRI): Identifying top downside risks for the global economy 2024-2026
- Global Fragmentation: Policy-induced decoupling would weaken global growth
- Commodity Price Hike: Geopolitical tensions pose a persistent risk to commodity prices
- Global Stagflation: Diverse economic and political challenges can lead to global stagflation
- China Slowdown: A risk for economies with significant exposure to China
- Europe Downturn: Europe's fragile recovery poses a risk to major exporters to the region
Country vulnerability
- Country Risk Index measures the vulnerability of 62 countries to adverse macro shocks
- Lower risk countries: Australia, Norway and Sweden top the chart
- Average risk countries: Largest emerging markets are moderately vulnerable to shocks
- Higher risk countries: Ukraine, Greece, Argentina and Croatia are most vulnerable
Conclusion
- Navigating risks in today's new economic reality
- Evolution of global risks
- Questions we are asking
For more information about this report visit https://www.researchandmarkets.com/r/s92fmf
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