Texas new home sales flat, showing mixed signals in September

HomesUSA.com reports Days on Market are flat, prices drop and inventory increases


DALLAS, Oct. 23, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- While Texas new home sales were flat last month for the combined four largest markets in Texas, home sales were up by about double-digits from a year ago, home prices were lower, and inventory increased in September, according to the newest monthly Texas New Home Sales Report released today by HomesUSA.com and its founder and CEO, Ben Caballero, the nation's top-ranked real estate agent.

The HomesUSA.com New Home Sales Report uses Multiple Listing Service data – the most comprehensive, current, and accurate information – from the Realtor Associations of North Texas, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio.

“Texas new home sales signals are mixed due to seasonal impact and the continued uncertainty of mortgage rates, but the silver lining is that sales compared to the same time last year are up 12 percent,” said Ben Caballero, founder and CEO of HomesUSA.com and the nation’s No. 1 ranked real estate agent since 2013.

According to Dallas-Ft. Worth, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio’s September MLS data, the new home sales' pace showed mixed results as the overall 3-month average of Days on Market (DOM) was 97.76 versus 97.05 days in August. For September versus August, the DOM in Dallas (122.00 versus 121.14), Austin (89.38 versus 87.53) and San Antonio (80.87 versus 79.71) increased, while the DOM in Houston was flat (87.76 versus 88.12).

New home sales in Texas’ largest markets posted a 3-month average of 5,722 in September versus 5,803 in August. Last month’s new home sales were flat in Austin and slightly lower in Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio.

Some good news for home buyers: the 3-month average new home price in the combined top four markets dropped in September to $429,898 versus $432,749 in August – an improvement of $2,851. Year-over-year, the average home price in the top four combined markets was nearly $29,000 lower than in September 2023.

The 3-month average home price in Austin was significantly lower – about $11,500 last month ($483,408 versus $494,920). Prices were also lower in Houston ($397,318 versus $402,741) and San Antonio ($338,620 versus $340,755). Dallas-Ft. Worth’s 3-month average new home price ticked higher, up by $2,367 in September ($492,129 versus $489,762).

Texas’ new home inventory in September continued to rise as the 3-month average of active listings climbed overall to 32,337 versus 31,983 in August. In three of the state’s largest markets – Houston, Dallas-Ft. Worth, and Austin, inventory rose. San Antonio was the exception in September, as the 3-month average of active listings dropped to 5,384 from 5,512 in August. Year-over-year active listings are up over 15% from 27,872 in September 2023.

Pending sales are a key indicator of future sales and they were marginally lower, but it was not as large of a drop as in past months. The average 3-month pending new home sales in the four largest Texas new home markets in September was 6,543 versus 6,575 in August (a difference of just 32 homes). It is the 5th straight month that the average pending sales number was lower. Pending sales were slightly higher in Austin but essentially flat in Dallas-Ft. Worth, San Antonio, and Houston.

HomesUSA.com is sharing its New Home Sales Report and New Home Sales Index before the Commerce Department releases its nationwide New Residential Sales Report for September, set for Thursday, October 24, 2024, at 10:00 am Eastern time.

The HomesUSA.com monthly report covers closed sales recorded in MLSs by the 10th day of the following month. Sales reported by agents after the 10th of the month are not included. The report features 3-month and 12-month moving averages for six essential market data, including DOM, sales volume, sales prices, a sales-to-list price ratio, pending sales, and active listings. Caballero explained the 3-month moving average indices track market seasonality, while the 12-month moving average removes the seasonality and tracks the longer trend.

Days on Market Flatten – New Homes in Texas (Exclusive Data)
The HomesUSA.com New Home Sales Index showed the August 3-month moving average of DOM flattened in Texas’ four major new home markets. In Dallas-Ft. Worth, the DOM rose to 122 days versus 121.14 days in August. In Austin, the DOM in September was 89.38 days versus 87.53 days in August. In San Antonio, the DOM increased to 80.87 days versus 79.71 days in August. Houston was the anomaly, as the DOM flattened to 87.76 days versus 88.12 days in August. New homes have significantly higher DOM than existing homes because most new homes are listed while under construction. (See Chart 1: Texas New Homes Days on Market)

Texas New Home Sales Decrease
Based on all local MLS data, the most reliable and current source of all home sales activity, total new home sales decreased slightly in the four largest new home markets in Texas last month. The September 3-month moving average of new home sales in Dallas-Ft. Worth was 1,848 versus 1,862 in August. In Houston, total new home sales dropped to 1,943 versus 1,970 in August. Austin's new home sales last month were 864 versus 871 in August. In San Antonio, new home sales in September were lower at 1,067 versus 1,100 in August. (See Chart 2: Texas New Home Sales)

Texas New Home Prices Drop
The average prices of new homes dropped in three of the four major new home markets in Texas last month. Dallas-Ft. Worth was the exception, as the 3-month moving average price for new homes in September was higher at $492,129 versus $489,762 in August. In Houston, the average new home price in September was lower at $397,318 versus $402,741 in August. In Austin, the 3-month moving average price in September was $483,408 versus $494,920 in August. San Antonio's average new home price was also lower in September at $338,620 versus $340,775 in August. (See Chart 3: Texas New Home Prices)

Texas Sales-to-List Price Ratio Remains Stable
Cumulative new home sales remain slightly lower than 100 percent of the asking price. The combined 3-month moving average of the sales-to-list price ratio in Texas’ four largest markets for September was 97.41 versus 98.01 percent a year ago and 97.47 percent in August this year. Dallas-Ft. Worth’s ratio in September was 97.77 versus 98.13 percent last September and 97.78 percent in August this year. In Houston, the ratio in September was 96.44 versus 98.37 percent last September and 96.62 percent in August this year. In Austin, the sales-to-price ratio in September was 97.58 versus 97.84 percent last September and 97.60 percent in August this year. San Antonio's ratio in September was 98.44 versus 97.25 percent a year ago and 98.33 percent in August this year. (See Chart 4: Texas Sales-to-List Price Ratio)

Texas Pending New Homes Sales Decline
Based on local MLS data, the average 3-month pending new home sales continue to decline in three of the four largest Texas new home markets. The combined four-market average in September totaled 6,543 versus 6,575 in August. In Dallas-Ft. Worth, pending new home sales last month were 2,266 versus 2,281 in August. In Houston, pending new home sales in September were 1,926 versus 1,957 in August. In San Antonio, pending new home sales were lower last month at 1,080 versus 1,093 in August. Austin was the exception, as pending new home sales in September were higher at 1,271 versus 1,244 in August. (See Chart 5: Texas Pending New Home Sales)

Texas Active Listings for New Homes Increase
Active new home listings continue to increase in three of four of the largest Texas new home markets in August. The September 3-month average active listings inventory in Texas’ four major new home markets was 32,337 new homes versus 31,983 in August. Dallas-Ft. Worth's active listings in September increased to 7,939 versus 7,686 in August. Active listings in Houston last month also increased to 12,994 versus 12,812 in August. In Austin, active listings in September were higher at 6,019 versus 5,973 in August. San Antonio was the outlier, as active listings last month decreased to 5,384 versus 5,512 in August. (See Chart 6: Texas Active Listings)

About the HomesUSA.com New Home Sales Index
The HomesUSA.com Index is reported as both a 3-month and 12-month moving average of the Days on Market for new homes listed in the local Multiple Listing Services (MLSs) for Dallas-Ft. Worth, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio. Created by Ben Caballero, it is the first Days on Market index to track the Texas new home market and includes homes listed while under construction. (See Chart A: 12-Month Moving Averages)

*Note: Texas data denotes a combination of its four largest new home markets – Houston, Dallas-Ft. Worth, Austin, and San Antonio – which comprise the vast majority of new home sales and MLS data statewide.

About Ben Caballero and HomesUSA.com®
Ben Caballero, founder and CEO of HomesUSA.com, is a three-time Guinness World Records title holder for ‘Most annual home sale transactions through MLS by an individual sell-side real estate agent – current.’ Ranked by REAL Trends as America’s top real estate agent for home sales since 2013, Ben is the most productive real estate agent in U.S. history. He is the only individual real estate agent to exceed $3 billion in residential sales transactions in a single year (2022), the first agent to exceed $2 billion (2018, 2019, 2020), and the first agent to exceed $1 billion (2015, 2016, 2017). Ben, an award-winning innovator and technology pioneer, works with more than 60 home builders in Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio. His podcast series is available widely, including iTunesSpotify and YouTube. Learn more at HomesUSA.com |Twitter: @bcaballero - @HomesUSA | Facebook: /HomesUSAdotcom.

Note for journalists: You may contact Ben Caballero directly by email at ben@homesusa.com.

REALTOR® is a federally registered collective membership mark which identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics.

Media Contact:
Kevin Hawkins
(206) 866-1220
kevin@wavgroup.com

Image: Ben Caballero (2023)
https://homesusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Ben_Caballero_1-scaled.jpg

Individual Chart images:

Chart 1: Texas New Homes Tracking – Days on Market – September 2024: https://homesusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Chart-1-Texas-New-Homes-Tracking-Days-on-Market.jpg

Chart 2: Texas New Home Sales – September 2024: https://homesusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Chart-2-Texas-New-Home-Sales-Market.jpg

Chart 3: Texas New Home Sales Prices– September 2024: https://homesusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Chart-3-Texas-New-Home-Sales-Prices-Market.jpg

Chart 4: Texas New Home Sales-to-List-Price Ratio - September 2024: https://homesusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Chart-4-Texas-Sales-to-List-Price-Ratio-Market.jpg

Chart 5: Texas Pending New Home Sales – September 2024: https://homesusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Chart-5-Texas-Pending-New-Home-Sales-Market.jpg

Chart 6: Texas New Home Active Listings – September 2024: https://homesusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Chart-6-Texas-Active-Listings-for-New-Homes-Market.jpg

Chart A: Texas 12-Month Moving Averages for New Homes – September 2024: https://homesusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Chart-A-12MonthChart-DataOnly.jpg


Ben Caballero, founder and CEO of HomesUSA.com Chart 1: Texas New Homes Tracking – Days on Market – September 2024 Chart 2: Texas New Home Sales – September 2024 Chart 3: Texas New Home Sales Prices – September 2024 Chart 4: Texas New Home Sales-to-List-Price Ratio – September 2024 Chart 5: Texas Pending New Home Sales – September 2024 Chart 6: Texas Active Listings for New Homes (Inventory) - September 2024 Chart A: Texas New Home Market: 12-Month Moving Averages – September 2024